February 1, 2021
A rather heavy layer of mid and high level clouds is moving over the southern half of California on the southern branch of the jet stream. Doppler radar is indicating there are patches of virga falling out of those clouds, which is precipitation falling but evaporating before reaching the ground. It is possible a sprinkle or two could occur today, but nothing measurable.
It now appears our next Pacific storm will rob us of what earlier models had indicated was a relatively decent precipitation event. Currently, a trough of low pressure extends from British Columbia to off of the northern California coast. Precipitation is tracking along a stationary front and into northwest California. As the trough moves southward, all of the models are now picking up on the dreaded split with the bulk of the energy moving into the Pacific Northwest and then into the Great Basin Wednesday. the second segment is a secondary low sliding southward too far off shore to increase rainfall chances. So, the bottom line is a cold front will move through the valley later Tuesday night or Wednesday with only a chance of light showers. To make matters worse, a massive high is already building northward over the central Pacific and into Alaska. That high will shift over the eastern Pacific with the western 1/3 of the U.S. under its umbrella.
A bitterly cold arctic air mass will dive south/southeast from northern Canada, engulfing the Rocky Mountain region and midwestern U.S. Friday through the coming weekend. With high pressure aloft, combined with an off shore flow, temperatures will be fairly seasonal Thursday and Friday, rising to somewhat above average over the weekend and well into next week.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today. Partly cloudy tonight and Tuesday morning. increasing cloudiness Tuesday afternoon leading to a chance of light showers Tuesday night through Wednesday. mostly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 66/41/63/43/57 | Reedley 68/41/64/43/57 | Dinuba 66/42/64/44/56 |
| Porterville 69/42/64/44/57 | Lindsay 68/42/64/43/57 | Delano 69/43/63/45/56 |
| Bakersfield 70/46/68/48/56 | Taft 69/50/64/52/54 | Arvin 71/44/68/46/56 |
| Lamont 70/45/67/46/55 | Pixley 69/42/65/42/57 | Tulare 66/42/64/43/55 |
| Woodlake 67/44/65/42/58 | Hanford 68/43/64/44/57 | Orosi 66/42/64/44/55 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 36/56 |
Friday
AM fog/PM Sun 33/59 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 34/60 |
Sunday
AM fog PM sun 36/64 |
Monday
AM fog PM sun 38/65 |
Two Week Outlook: February 8 through February 14: This model depicts roughly 80% of the lower 48 will have below average temperatures, including California. We are definitely under a blocking ridge pattern so the chance of precipitation will be very low.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through tonight will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 12 MPH. localized downslope winds near the base of the Tehachapi will be possible, generally in the 15 to 30 MPH range. For Tuesday and Tuesday night, winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds late Tuesday night and Wednesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Light winds will return Wednesday night and Thursday.
Rain Discussion: It now appears that a split will occur in the incoming trough of low pressure. What had appeared to be a decent precipitation event now appears that only light showers will occur Tuesday night and Wednesday and mainly over Kern County. Where precipitation does occur, no more than a tenth or two can be anticipated. Dry weather will return Wednesday night with dry weather Thursday and for at least a week thereafter.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night through Thursday morning. the air mass moving in behind the cold front is relatively cold but nothing unusual for early February. It’s possible that on Friday and Saturday mornings, the coldest river bottom and frog ponds may dip into the 29 to 31 range with most locations in the mid 30s. By Sunday morning, and beyond, the air mass will have modified to the point where temperatures will be above freezing.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 86%/42% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .34, Parlier .33, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .68, Orange Cove .31, Porterville .NA, Delano .43. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 50, Porterville NA, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 73/25. Average Temperatures: 58/36
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1442. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.7 +3.5 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 4.82, or -.84 or 85% of average. Month to Date: 3.40 or +1.21
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.72, +or- -1.40 or 55% of average. Month to date .98, or -.18
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 794, Parlier, 926, Arvin, 744, Belridge, 857, Shafter, 852, Stratford, 885, Delano, 948, Porterville, 878
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:00 am Sunset: 5:26 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:24
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 62 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.90 79 5.27 71 7.47 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.44 81 3.92 59 6.69 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.61 92 M M 6.12 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.05 17 M M 6.18 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.82 85 M M 5.66 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.03 59 M M 5.17 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.72 55 M M 3.12 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.38 14 1.16 43 2.67 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.40 68 5.99 92 6.51 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.93 93 6.61 103 6.41 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.90 87 4.79 70 6.80 13.95
Next report: February 1/pm