February 2, 2021
As expected the trough of low pressure has split off the northern California coast. Doppler radar shows a band of light showers stretching from Monterey to Stanislaus County then northeastward into the northern Sierra Nevada. That is all that remains of a dying cold front which will move through the valley tonight and early Wednesday. there is a reasonable chance of light showers from Fresno County north, however the chance will drop off sharply in the south valley as the front loses its upper air support.
A northwest flow will follow this system as it shifts eastward, developing low level upslope clouds against the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, possibly into Thursday morning.
The air mass following the front is relatively cold, but nothing unusual for early February. Colder locations will see temperatures marginally below average beginning Wednesday morning which is discussed in the frost summary below.
Behind this system is a massive upper high stretching northward into Alaska. The west coast of the U.S. will be flanked on the western perimeter of this high, result in a northwest flow aloft. A bitterly cold Arctic air mass will drop southeastward through Montana and Wyoming Thursday and Thursday night and into the midwestern U.S. over the weekend, put ting those folks under the deep freeze. Thankfully this air mass will not affect the western ¼ of the U.S.
By the later part of next weekend and into next week, a semi zonal flow will set up across the Pacific. And into California. One model suggests a chance of light showers from a weak low moving through northern California February 10th. However, it’s the odd model out so will go ahead and forecast dry conditions. After Thursday, a warm air inversion will set up, so even though it’s late in the fog season, areas of fog and low clouds will form each morning, mainly in the center of the valley.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness today with a slight chance of light showers from Fresno County north. A chance of light showers tonight and Wednesday, mainly from Fresno County north. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night into Thursday morning with some clearing on the west side. Mostly clear later Thursday and on through Tuesday of next week with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds, mainly north of Kern County.
Short Term:
| Madera 66/46/56/33/57 | Reedley 67/44/58/33/56 | Dinuba 65/43/57/37/57 |
| Porterville 68/42/58/33/58 | Lindsay 67/43/57/32/56 | Delano 68/44/58/34/57 |
| Bakersfield 69/46/67/48/66 | Taft 67/51/65/43/56 | Arvin 69/46/67/37/68 |
| Lamont 68/45/67/36/57 | Pixley 67/44/58/35/57 | Tulare 66/43/56/32/56 |
| Woodlake 66/42/56/33/57 | Hanford 68/45/57/34/57 | Orosi 65/42/56/32/56 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
AM fog/PM Sun 33/60 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM Sun 35/61 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM Sun 38/64 |
Monday
AM fog/PM Sun 38/65 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM Sun 39/65 |
Two Week Outlook: February 9 through February 15: This model depicts roughly 80% of the lower 48 will have below average temperatures, including California. We are definitely under a blocking ridge pattern so the chance of precipitation will be very low.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH. later tonight through Wednesday evening, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds later Thursday night through Friday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of night and morning calm conditions and generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons.
Rain Discussion: There is a reasonable chance of light showers as far south as Fresno County late this afternoon through Wednesday, mainly during the morning hours. The chance of measurable rain south of Fresno County drops off sharply with dry weather in Kern County. Even in Fresno and Madera Counties, no more than .10 is anticipated. Dry weather will begin Wednesday night and remain for the rest of the week. One model shows a chance of light showers around the 10th, however jfor now it is the odd model out. We’ll keep the forecast dry for next week as well.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday mornings we’ll see the typical low lying river bottom and other frost pockets possibly dropping down to the 28 to 31 range with most flatland locations generally ranging from 30 to 36 and generally 31 to 37 in Kern County. As upper level high pressure strengthens over the weekend, overnight lows will moderate to above freezing conditions, lasting at least into the middle of next week, if not beyond.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 91%/29% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .38, Parlier .40, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .74, Orange Cove .37, Porterville .NA, Delano .49. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 52, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 74/26. Average Temperatures: 58/37
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1446. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 60.5 +12.5 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 4.82, or -.91 or 84% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.07
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.72, +or- -1.44 or 54% of average. Month to date .00 or -.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 794, Parlier, 926, Arvin, 744, Belridge, 857, Shafter, 852, Stratford, 885, Delano, 948, Porterville, 878
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:59 am Sunset: 5:27 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:26
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 74 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 73 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 72 / M / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 75 / 50 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 75 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 73 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 75 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.90 78 5.27 70 7.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.44 80 3.92 58 6.78 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.61 91 0.00 0 6.18 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.05 17 0.00 0 6.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.82 84 0.00 0 5.73 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.03 58 0.00 0 5.21 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.72 54 0.00 0 3.16 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.30 48 1.16 43 2.70 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.40 67 5.99 91 6.60 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.93 91 6.61 102 6.50 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.90 86 4.79 69 6.90 13.95
Next report: February 2/pm