February 2, 2021
Summary: What is left of a stalled out frontal system is running from southwest to northeast across northern San Luis Obispo County then through Merced County to the central Sierra Nevada. Light showers are showing up on Doppler radar as far south as extreme southwest Fresno and Merced Counties. There is a chance of light showers struggling into Madera and Fresno Counties tonight with only a chance of a few sprinkles south of Fresno County.
Behind the front is the main body of low pressure which has already split but will drop into northern California late tonight and Wednesday with possible showers down to a Ukiah/Sacramento line.
In the meantime, out over the central Pacific is a rapidly expanding high pressure system at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere which is building a ridge clear up into Alaska. Beginning Thursday, the high will shift towards the west coast, placing California in a dry, northwesterly flow aloft. This will issue ijn a colder air mass but certainly nothing unusual for this time of year. Local frost will be possible ijn the coldest locations Thursday through Saturday mornings. Some models show a weak trough of low pressure moving into northern and possibly central California next Tuesday and Wednesday, however other models continue to show a dry pattern.
In the short term, the northwesterly flow will cause a layer of low clouds to bank against the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada Wednesday into early Thursday morning. these clouds will mix out during the day Thursday, becoming mostly clear Thursday afternoon through the weekend.
Forecast: Increasing clouds tonight with a chance of light showers from Fresno County north and a chance of sprinkles further south through Wednesday morning. partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning with some clearing towards the center and west side of the valley north of Kern County. Clearing later Thursday morning. mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Sunday night with areas of night and morning fog. Partly cloudy Monday and Tuesday with patchy night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 44/57/33/57 | Reedley 42/58/33/57 | Dinuba 42/57/32/56 | |
| Porterville 43/59/33/58 | Lindsay 42/58/32/57 | Delano 44/58/34/58 | |
| Bakersfield 47/57/38/58 | Taft 51/54/43/54 | Arvin 46/58/36/50 | |
| Lamont 46/58/36/59 | Pixley 43/58/33/57 | Tulare 42/56/32/57 | |
| Woodlake 42/57/33/57 | Hanford 44/58/34/58 | Orosi 41/57/32/57 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be variable to around 12 MPH. late tonight through Wednesday evening, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, mainly north of Kern County. Winds late Wednesday night through Friday will be at or less than 6 MPH during the night and early morning hours with periods of near calm conditions. Winds during the mid morning through the afternoon hours will be variable to near 10 MPH.
Rain: There is a chance of light showers tonight and Wednesday morning from Fresno County north. Sprinkles cannot be ruled out in the south valley. Where precipitation does occur, rainfall amounts will be at or less than .10. expect dry weather from Wednesday morning through the end of the week. There are a couple of models suggesting the possibility of light showers from Fresno County north next Tuesday and Wednesday while other models keep the storm track north of that line. For now, we’ll go with a dry forecast for the next 7 days.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. on Thursday morning we will likely observe a low cloud deck above Kern County and much of eastern Tulare County due to upslope conditions. Locations that do clear Thursday morning could potentially drop to 31 ot 28 degrees in those traditional cold spots. Most locations will remain in the low to mid 30s. The same rule of thumb will apply to Friday and Saturday mornings as well. Strengthening upper level high pressure will nudge temperatures up enough from Sunday morning and beyond to keep temperatures above freezing.
Next update: February 3/am