February 3, 2021
A low overcast covers all of Kern County, most of Kings County, and all of Tulare County this morning. this is due to upsloping from a northwesterly flow aloft which is lifted by the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada. The base of the overcast is rather ragged. The sounding above Bakersfield indicated a base at 4,200 feet, 5,500 feet over Visalia, but just 300 feet over Porterville. These clouds will eventually mix out later this afternoon with some cloud cover lingering into Thursday morning over southeastern Tulare County and parts of Kern County. Locations that have clear skies tonight will fall below freezing in some areas. This is discussed below in the frost section.
In the big picture, a trough of low pressure is now moving into the interior west with some lingering showers over northern California this morning. a massive upper high is building over the eastern Pacific, ridging northward into Alaska. Part of yesterday’s weak frontal system passage pinched off and has formed a cut off low several hundred miles off the central coast. This will have no impact on our weather. The currently northwesterly flow will become westerly by Sunday, modifying the air mass. Some models indicate a chance of showers over northern California Monday night through Tuesday night, too far to the north to have much impact here. Areas of fog and low clouds will form each morning, mainly towards the center of the valley north of Kern County.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today in Fresno and Kings Counties. Mostly cloudy in Tulare and Kern Counties, slowly clearing during the afternoon mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight, possibly remaining partly to mostly cloudy in Southeastern Tulare and Kern Counties. Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy later Thursday through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds, mainly towards the center of the valley north of Kern County. Variable cloudiness Monday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
Madera 58/32/58/31/60 | Reedley 59/32/58/31/59 | Dinuba 57/31/57/30/59 |
Porterville 57/32/59/31/61 | Lindsay 58/31/59/30/60 | Delano 57/32/58/31/61 |
Bakersfield 56/40/59/37/62 | Taft 55/44/55/43/59 | Arvin 56/38/59/33/62 |
Lamont 56/38/59/33/62 | Pixley 58/32/59/31/61 | Tulare 58/31/59/30/60 |
Woodlake 59/31/58/30/60 | Hanford 59/32/59/31/61 | Orosi 58/31/59/30/60 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Saturday
AM fog/PM Sun 34/60 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM Sun 37/63 |
Monday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 39/63 |
Tuesday
Variable clouds 42/62 |
Wednesday
Variable clouds 43/64 |
Two Week Outlook: February 9 through February 15: This model depicts roughly 80% of the lower 48 will have below average temperatures, including California. We are definitely under a blocking ridge pattern so the chance of precipitation will be very low.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the mid morning to afternoon hours will be variable at or less than 10 MPH through Saturday. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be no more than 7 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry weather for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost Discussion: As expected, upsloping has resulted in a low cloud deck over much of the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley. These clouds will mix out during the course of the day, however some cloud cover may linger in portions of Kern and southeastern Tulare County through the night. Where skies clear tonight, river bottom and other low lying frost pockets could potentially drop to 28 to 29 degrees or so with most locations ranging from 30 to 35. If your location happens to be under a lingering low cloud deck, readings will remain freezing.
Subfreezing temperatures will be more widespread Friday morning as the protective cloud deck will be eliminated with, again, most frost pockets dipping into the 28 to 29 degree range and with most flat land regions in the low 30s, possibly into the mid 30s in portions of Kern County.
Temperatures Saturday morning will be slightly milder.
A westerly flow aloft will begin over the weekend, pulling temperatures above freezing. The combination of a milder air mass and in and out cloud cover will keep temperatures above freezing for most, if not all of, next week.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
31 |
Ducor 32 | Tea Pot Dome
31 |
Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
32 |
Belridge
30 |
Delano 32 | North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
31 |
Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom 28 |
Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
33 |
Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
30 |
Kite Rd South
Af |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 91%/29% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .38, Parlier .40, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .74, Orange Cove .37, Porterville .NA, Delano .49. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 52, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 74/26. Average Temperatures: 58/37
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1446. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 60.5 +12.5 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 4.82, or -.91 or 84% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.07
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.72, +or- -1.44 or 54% of average. Month to date .00 or -.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 794, Parlier, 926, Arvin, 744, Belridge, 857, Shafter, 852, Stratford, 885, Delano, 948, Porterville, 878
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:59 am Sunset: 5:27 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:26
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 74 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 73 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 72 / M / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 75 / 50 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 75 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 73 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 75 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.90 78 5.27 70 7.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.44 80 3.92 58 6.78 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.61 91 0.00 0 6.18 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.05 17 0.00 0 6.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.82 84 0.00 0 5.73 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.03 58 0.00 0 5.21 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.72 54 0.00 0 3.16 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.30 48 1.16 43 2.70 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.40 67 5.99 91 6.60 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.93 91 6.61 102 6.50 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.90 86 4.79 69 6.90 13.95
Next report: February 3/pm