February 8, 2021
Summary: Higher level clouds based between 15,000 and 20,000 feet are streaming over central California ahead of a weak low pressure system which will move through Tuesday and Tuesday night. Already the air aloft has cooled somewhat. The freezing level above Oakland taken earlier today was 11,200 feet, which is still fairly high but keep in mind, the freezing level 24 hours ago was almost 14,000 feet.
As the weak wave of low pressure moves through, lift may add enough pitch to the atmosphere for a few showers of rain or snow over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Behind this system will be a weak northwest push of air which may develop upslope clouds against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, especially in Tulare County. Skies will clear up in most areas by Wednesday afternoon as a progressive weak ridge of upper level high pressure moves through.
Our next contender will be a low pressure system in the southern Gulf of Alaska which will drop northwest to southeast across California Thursday night and Friday morning. this storm will also be nothing to write home about, however there is a reasonable chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County, Thursday night and Friday morning.
Another progressive ridge, meaning its on the move, will move through Friday through Saturday morning. the last in the series will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Saturday night and Sunday. This system will be somewhat colder however some models are backing off on the storm’s possible intensity. Suffice it to say, a chance of showers is certainly needed in the forecast for that time frame.
Beginning Monday, upper level high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific, driving the storm track well north of central California for several days of dry weather.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Tuesday night, except mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, over Kern County and portions of Tulare County. Becoming mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. increasing cloudiness Thursday afternoon. A chance of light showers Thursday night and Friday morning, mainly north of Kern County. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday afternoon. Partly cloudy Saturday morning. increasing cloudiness Saturday afternoon. Showers likely Saturday night and Sunday morning. partly to mostly cloudy Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. becoming mostly clear Monday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 40/64/41/64 | Reedley 41/65/42/64 | Dinuba 40/63/42/63 | |
| Porterville 40/65/42/64 | Lindsay 39/64/42/65 | Delano 42/65/43/65 | |
| Bakersfield 48/67/47/65 | Taft 51/64/52/64 | Arvin 42/66/43/65 | |
| Lamont 42/66/43/65 | Pixley 41/64/42/64 | Tulare 40/63/42/64 | |
| Woodlake 39/64/41/64 | Hanford 41/65/42/63 | Orosi 39/63/42/64 | |
Winds: Winds tonight and Tuesday morning will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Late Tuesday afternoon and evening, winds will be out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: We have two chances for precipitation this upcoming week. A fairly weak low will drop out of the southern Gulf of Alaska and will move through central California Thursday night and Friday for a chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County. It’s possible a tenth or two could be generated from Fresno County north to just a few hundredths south of Fresno County. Dry weather will quickly return Friday afternoon through Saturday.
The final storm in the series will spread showers down the valley Saturday night and Sunday. Earlier models had shown this system to be fairly robust, however some models this afternoon are backing off on that solution to more of a light shower event. The storm track will migrate further north Monday through Friday of next week for several days of dry weather.
Frost: Expect above freezing conditions short, medium, and long range.
Next update: February 9/am