February 11, 2021
Meteorologically speaking, it has been interesting to watch the behavior of a long episode arctic outbreak. Some of this arctic air is now leaching into western Washington and Oregon where snow will likely fall to sea level. Temperatures in some areas of Montana this morning range from -20 to -30. California and the Desert Southwest are part of just a few areas not to be hit by winter’s wrath.
The first of two low pressure systems will begin increasing cloudiness over the valley today. Showers will reach Fresno and Madera Counties this evening then spread rapidly southward during the night. this system is pretty compact and fast moving, so precipitation amounts on the valley floor will not be all that impressive. Freezing levels ahead of the front are actually quite high. The sounding over Oakland put the freezing level at 11,000 feet, sloping to 12,000 feet over Vandenberg. As the colder air mass arrives, especially that behind the front, snow levels will drop to 5,000 to 6,000 feet or so.
A temporary ridge of high pressure will fill in Friday and Friday night. models are now indicating that a cold weather system which will arrive Saturday night, will be more of an inside slider as the dynamics of this system will move mainly into the interior west, eventually forming a strong winter
storm over the Rockies. It appears central California will wind up on the far western side of the low for a good chance of light snow over the sierra Nevada with a much reduced chance of precipitation on the valley floor.
The next system will spread light showers over northern California Monday and Monday night, possibly spreading showers as far south as Fresno. For the remainder of next week, upper level high pressure off the southern California coast will expand far enough to the north to nudge the storm track back into the Pacific Northwest, possibly affecting roughly the northern ¼ of California from time to time.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Showers spreading south over the valley this evening. A chance of showers early Friday morning, otherwise it will be partly cloudy Friday but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. Partly cloudy Friday night. increasing clouds Saturday leading to just a chance of light showers Saturday night and Sunday morning. remaining mostly cloudy in the southern and eastern portions of the valley Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with partly cloudy skies from Fresno County north and along the west side. Mostly cloudy Monday and Monday night with a slight chance of showers from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Tuesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/46/61/42/59 | Reedley 65/46/61/41/60 | Dinuba 64/45/61/41/58 |
| Porterville 66/46/61/40/59 | Lindsay 65/45/61/41/58 | Delano 66/47/62/42/58 |
| Bakersfield 67/50/59/45/58 | Taft 62/53/57/50/58 | Arvin 67/47/59/43/58 |
| Lamont 67/47/58/45/59 | Pixley 66/47/62/41/59 | Tulare 64/46/61/40/58 |
| Woodlake 64/45/61/41/59 | Hanford 65/47/62/42/59 | Orosi 65/45/61/40/58 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly cloudy 38/58 |
Monday
Mostly cloudy 38/58 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 39/60 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 37/60 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 36/61 |
Two Week Outlook: February 16 through February 22: About 80% of the lower 48 is projected to have below average temperatures. The valley is one of the few exceptions with near average temperatures. The chance of rain during this time frame remains very low.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally light today then will be out of the northwest late tonight through Friday at around 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds Friday night and Saturday will again be light and variable. Winds late Saturday night and Sunday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with locally stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: Showers will spread as far south as Fresno and Madera Counties this evening then rapidly over the rest of the region tonight and early Friday. Precipitation amounts should be upwards to around .25 in eastern Fresno County, Madera County and northern Tulare County, generally between .10 and .15 along the west of Fresno and Kings Counties. Kern County should pick up .10 or less. This is a fast mover so much of Friday through Saturday will be dry.
The next system is colder but latest models indicate this system will slide mainly into Nevada and Utah with central California on the far west side of the storm. Snow showers will spread over the Sierra Nevada with only a chance of light showers on the valley floor.
From midday Sunday and lasting through the remainder of the week, it appears a dry pattern will develop, although it’s possible a few showers could spread as far south as Fresno County Monday and Monday evening.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees in the short, medium, and long range.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 92%/42% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .55, Parlier .50, Arvin .63, Orange Cove .53, Porterville .NA, Delano .58. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 49, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 73/28. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1566. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.4 +3.9 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 4.82, or -1.57 or 75% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.73
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.72, +or- -1.84 or 48% of average. Month to date .00 or -.44
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 861, Parlier, 997, Arvin, 792, Belridge, 920, Shafter, 904, Stratford, 957, Delano, 1021, Porterville, 959
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:50 am Sunset: 5:37 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:45
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1500 / 59 / 43 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 70 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 68 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 40 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 68 / 40 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 67 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.43 76 5.27 63 8.42 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.90 78 3.92 52 7.58 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.62 82 0.00 0 6.89 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.05 15 0.00 0 6.82 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.82 75 0.00 0 6.39 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.03 53 0.00 0 5.70 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.72 48 0.00 0 3.56 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.30 44 1.16 39 2.95 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.47 60 5.99 81 7.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.93 81 6.61 90 7.31 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.90 75 4.79 61 7.84 13.95
Next report: February 11/pm