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Forecast

February 11, 2021/update

February 11, 2021

Summary:Doppler radar is picking up light showers over the northern San Joaquin Valley and lower Sacramento Valley and just off the central coast, as of 1:00pm.  A compact, fast moving weather system will drive right through central California tonight.  the cold front should move through during the early morning hours with showers rapidly coming to an end, possibly as early as the morning commute.  A northwest push of cooler air will move down the valley Friday.  As it is lifted by the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains, upslope clouds will form over the southern and eastern flanks of the valley, mainly in Kern and Tulare Counties.  Kern and southeastern Tulare Counties may not see much sunshine until later Friday afternoon.

 

A weak wedge of high pressure will follow ahead of a colder storm which will bring snow levels down to sea level over the Pacific Northwest.  The model trend that began yesterday showing  most of the dynamics moving east of the Sierra Nevada continues to show  up on afternoon models.  Snow showers will be likely Saturday and Saturday night up and down the Sierra Nevada.  For now, we’ll go with no more than a 50/50 chance of measurable rain on the valley floor.  Models have also moved up the timing of this storm with the best chance of showers being during the day Saturday.

 

Another round of upslope clouds will bank up against the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada Saturday night, lasting well into Sunday.  After Sunday, upper level high pressure will park over the eastern Pacific well off shore.  California will be on the far eastern portion of this high with the storm track moving over the top of the high and into the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California, so after Saturday night, it appears several days of dry weather will follow with near average temperatures.

 

Forecast: Showers likely tonight with a chance of showers mainly in the south valley into the morning commute.  Mostly cloudy Friday in Kern and Tulare Counties with partly cloudy skies elsewhere.  Increasing cloudiness again late Friday night leading to a chance of light showers Saturday into Saturday evening.  Mostly cloudy later  Saturday night through Sunday in Kern and Tulare Counties with partly cloudy skies elsewhere.  Variable cloudiness Sunday night through Monday night.  mostly clear Tuesday through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 46/61/40/59 Reedley 47/62/40/60 Dinuba 46/61/40/58
Porterville 47/62/40/59 Lindsay 46/61/40/59 Delano 48/62/41/58
Bakersfield 50/59/45/58 Taft 50/58/49/59 Arvin 48/59/44/57
Lamont 48/60/44/57 Pixley 48/62/42/58 Tulare 46/60/40/58
Woodlake 46/61/40/59 Hanford 47/61/41/57 Orosi 46/61/40/59

 

Winds: Winds late tonight and Friday will be out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.  Winds will be light and variable Friday night and early Saturday then will be out of the northwest again late Saturday night and Sunday at around 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts along the west side.

 

Rain: Showers will rapidly spread over the valley this evening and continue through the night but will be over before the morning commute.  Since this system is moving so quickly, rainfall amounts will not be very impressive.  In eastern Fresno and Tulare Counties and Madera County, rainfall amounts between .20 and .33 cannot be ruled out.  In western Fresno and Kings Counties, no more than .10 to .20 is likely with generally no more than .10 to .15 over the valley portion of Kern County.

 

Friday will be dry with dry weather continuing through Friday night.  I’m going to go with no more than 50/50 for a chance of showers Saturday and Saturday evening as most of the energy will slide into Nevada and Utah.  Snow showers are likely up and down the Sierra Nevada but no more than a 50/50 proposition for precipitation on the valley floor.  After Saturday evening, a dry weather pattern will set up which may last all the way through next week.

 

Frost: Expect above freezing conditions short, medium, and long range.

Next update:  February 12/am