February 12, 2021
A fast moving low pressure system and its associated cold front moved through the valley overnight and is already centered over southeast California. A strong northwesterly flow both at the surface and aloft will generate some somewhat breezy winds through this evening. In fact, there is already a substantial difference in pressure between the northern California coast and southern Nevada. The current barometric pressure at San Francisco is 30.03 inches of mercury while at Las Vegas the reading is down to 29.62. that pressure gradient will increase during the course of the day.
As that northwest flow is lifted by the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains, upslope clouds will develop with only slow clearing over eastern Tulare and Kern Counties with partly cloudy skies elsewhere.
Clouds will already be increasing late tonight ahead of the next cold low which will stretch from off the coast of the Pacific Northwest then into Nevada and Utah where it will form a major winter storm over the interior west. Snow showers will be likely up and down the Sierra Nevada with a minimal chance of light scattered showers over the valley floor Saturday, mainly along the east side.
Beginning Sunday night and Monday, upper level high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific with California on the far eastern sector of the high. That will put us in a cool, northwesterly flow aloft with temperatures marginally below average through Wednesday. after Wednesday, the high will build further north, driving the storm track into the Pacific Northwest for an extended period of dry weather.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today in Kern and eastern Tulare County with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Partly cloudy overnight with increasing clouds during the early morning hours. Mostly cloudy Saturday with a chance of light showers, mainly along the east side of the valley. A slight chance of showers Saturday evening. Mostly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday morning. partly cloudy Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. mostly cloudy Monday and Monday night with a slight chance of showers from Fresno north. Partly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night. mostly clear Wednesday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/40/59/36/59 | Reedley 60/40/58/37/58 | Dinuba 58/40/58/36/58 |
| Porterville 59/41/59/36/58 | Lindsay 58/39/59/36/58 | Delano 60/41/59/38/58 |
| Bakersfield 57/45/57/41/57 | Taft 57/46/58/45/55 | Arvin 58/43/57/40/57 |
| Lamont 58/43/57/40/57 | Pixley 60/41/59/37/59 | Tulare 59/39/59/36/58 |
| Woodlake 60/39/58/36/58 | Hanford 60/41/58/38/57 | Orosi 58/39/58/35/57 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly cloudy 38/59 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 40/59 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 37/60 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 39/64 |
Friday
Mostly clear 40/67 |
Two Week Outlook: February 19 through February 25: This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures. For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through this evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, especially along the west side but locally elsewhere. Winds later tonight will decrease and become light and variable. Later Saturday through Sunday winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds will begin to decrease Sunday night then become light and variable Monday.
Rain Discussion: The following are rainfall amounts as of 6:30am. Bakersfield .08, Buttonwillow .01, Lamont .08, Delano .07, Porterville .11, Stratford .04, Hanford .02, Visalia .20, Fresno .27, Madera .14, Exeter .40. the heaviest precipitation I could find along the Sierra Nevada was at Mammoth Pass with a water equivalent of 1.56.
Today will be dry with continued dry weather through tonight. On Saturday, a cold low will move through the Pacific Northwest with the main dynamics moving into Nevada and Utah where a major winter storm will develop. Central California will be on the far western side of this low with snow showers spreading down the Sierra Nevada and about a 50/50 chance of measurable rain on the valley floor, mainly along the east side and especially near the foothills.
Dry weather will quickly return Saturday night. We’ll keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast for Fresno County northward Monday as we will be on the far southern fringe of a system moving through northern California.
After Monday, high pressure off shore will slowly build northward, ensuring dry weather for the remainder of next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. it’s possible that where it clears on Sunday morning that the coldest locations could drop down to 32 to 36 degrees or so. But no real frost episode is expected. Cloud cover will keep temperatures above freezing Monday and Tuesday. Warmer air will begin to move in aloft after Wednesday, ensuring above freezing conditions for the remainder of the week. Nothing on longer range models suggests a particularly cold pattern ahead.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 91%/50% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .53, Parlier .50, Arvin .67, Orange Cove .51, Porterville .NA, Delano .59. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 49, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 76/28. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1578. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.4 +3.9 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 4.83, or -1.63 or 75% of average. Month to Date: .01 or -.79
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.72, +or- -1.88 or 48% of average. Month to date .00 or -.48
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 865, Parlier, 1004, Arvin, 797, Belridge, 922, Shafter, 907, Stratford, 961, Delano, 1026, Porterville, 965
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:49 am Sunset: 5:38 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:47
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 62 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 70 / M / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 64 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.43 76 5.27 62 8.51 14.06
MODESTO T 5.90 77 3.92 51 7.66 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.62 81 M M 6.97 12.50
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 6.89 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.82 75 M M 6.46 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.03 53 M M 5.76 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.72 48 M M 3.60 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.30 44 1.16 39 2.98 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.47 60 5.99 80 7.50 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.93 80 6.61 89 7.39 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.90 74 4.79 60 7.94 13.95
Next report: February 12/pm