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Forecast

February 14, 2021/report

February 14, 2021

Upper level high pressure is now anchored well off the California coast.  Cold, weak weather disturbances continue to move rapidly out of the Gulf of Alaska through the Pacific Northwest then into the interior west just to the east of the Sierra Nevada.

 

The next system will spread some light showers over northern California Monday with light snow showers likely over the high Sierra.  Just variable amounts of cloud cover are likely over the valley floor through Tuesday.

 

Each time one of these disturbances drops into the Great Basin, somewhat colder air moves down the valley.  The lift over the southern Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains will continue to regenerate upslope clouds, mainly over Kern County and southeastern Tulare County, through Tuesday night.  elsewhere, variable clouds can be expected.

 

There will be a chance of local frost on Wednesday and Thursday mornings which is discussed in the frost section below.

 

By Thursday, the ofof shore high will begin to shift eastward into California.  The northwest flow aloft will be replaced by a westerly flow aloft, resulting in milder temperatures.  The storm track from Wednesday through the weekend will move through the Pacific Northwest, affecting the northern ¼ of California from time to time.  The bottom line  is that this week will be dry with dry weather possibly lasting into next week, as well.

 

Forecast: Mostly cloudy over Kern County and southeastern Tulare County today with partly cloudy skies elsewhere.  Variable cloudiness tonight through Tuesday.  Clearing Tuesday evening.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 58/38/59/41/59 Reedley 59/39/59/41/58 Dinuba 57/38/58/40/59
Porterville 59/40/59/42/58 Lindsay 58/39/59/40/59 Delano 58/40/59/42/58
Bakersfield 57/42/59/46/58 Taft 56/45/58/48/58 Arvin 58/41/58/45/57
Lamont 58/41/60/44/58 Pixley 59/39/59/40/60 Tulare 58/38/59/40/59
Woodlake 58/39/59/40/59 Hanford 58/40/59/42/59 Orosi 58/38/58/40/59

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

35/60

Thursday

Mostly clear

33/62

Friday

Mostly clear

36/64

Saturday

Mostly clear

40/64

Sunday

Mostly clear

39/65

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 21 through February 27:  This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures.  For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.

 

February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.      

 

February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation.  Temperatures should be marginally above average.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds will be generally out of the northwest at around 5 to 12 MPH through tonight.  winds late Monday night through Tuesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts possible along the west side.  Winds Wednesday will be light and variable.

 

Rain Discussion:  Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees through Tuesday morning.  a colder air mass will invade central California later Monday night and Tuesday behind a cold low racing through the Great Basin.  Where skies remain generally clear Wednesday and Thursday mornings, low sink hole type locations could drop to 29 to 31 degrees with most locations generally ranging in the 30s.  From Friday morning and beyond, a westerly flow will take over, transporting a milder air mass into the region for above freezing conditions for the remainder of the week and well into next week.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Mid to upper 30s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 97%/65%  Orange Cove, 97%/54%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 20%.  Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 30%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .55, Parlier .47, Arvin .59, Orange Cove .47, Porterville .NA, Delano .53. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 49, Delano 49

Record Temperatures: 79/25. Average Temperatures: 62/38

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1602.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.5 +3.7 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.11,  or -1.49 or 77% of average.  Month to Date: .29  or -.65

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  1.81, +or-  -1.88 or 49% of average.  Month to date  .09 or -.38

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 868, Parlier, 1005,  Arvin, 801, Belridge, 925, Shafter, 912, Stratford, 966, Delano, 1031, Porterville, 970

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 6:47 am   Sunset: 5:40 pm   Hours of Daylight:  10:51

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  64 /  44 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  64 /  43 /    T /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  62 /  47 / 0.02 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  62 /  42 /    T /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  68 /  42 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  60 /  52 / 0.01 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  59 /  43 /    T /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  59 /  43 /    T /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1551 /  62 /  44 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    6.86    79    5.27    61     8.68    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.35    81    3.92    50     7.82    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.90    83    0.00     0     7.13    12.50

MADERA                           T       M     M    0.00     0     7.04    12.02

FRESNO                        0.02    5.11    77    0.00     0     6.60    11.50

HANFORD                          T    3.05    52    0.00     0     5.89    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.01    1.81    49    0.00     0     3.69     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.61    53    1.16    38     3.04     5.18

SALINAS                       0.03    4.67    61    5.99    78     7.67    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    5.96    79    6.61    87     7.56    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.08    75    4.79    59     8.15    13.95

 

Next report: February 15/am