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Forecast

February 15, 2021/report

February 15, 2021

The next weather system is racing southeastward to the Great Basin and is spreading light showers down the Sierra Nevada.  We will be on the far western side of this trough so I wouldn’t completely rule out a chance of light showers later today, especially along the Sierra Nevada foothills.  We can almost ditto that for Tuesday as yet another fast moving low slides through the Pacific Northwest then dives into Nevada and Utah.  Another round of snow showers will quickly move down the Sierra Tuesday, ending Tuesday evening.

 

In the meantime, upper level high pressure will be  building well off the California coast.  The high will begin to push inland Wednesday, turning the  northwesterly winds aloft to westerly for the beginning of a minor warming trend.  Models show another system moving through the Pacific Northwest, but affecting just northern California Friday through Friday evening.

 

Expect dry conditions Saturday through Monday as the high finally fully shifts into California.  Models also show dry conditions for the first half of next week as the main storm track remains well north.

 

Forecast: Mostly cloudy through Tuesday evening.  A small chance of light showers this afternoon and evening, mainly along the Sierra Nevada foothills.  Another slight chance of showers for Tuesday afternoon and evening, again mainly along the Sierra Nevada foothills.  Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County.  Partly cloudy elsewhere.  Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.  variable cloudiness Friday and Friday night.  mostly clear Saturday through Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 58/40/58/36/57 Reedley 60/42/58/37/59 Dinuba 57/42/58/35/59
Porterville 60/43/59/35/59 Lindsay 58/40/58/44/58 Delano 60/43/58/37/60
Bakersfield 60/44/58/39/60 Taft 59/48/55/43/57 Arvin 60/43/57/38/60
Lamont 61/44/58/38/59 Pixley 58/43/58/36/59 Tulare 58/40/58/35/58
Woodlake 58/41/58/35/59 Hanford 59/42/58/38/60 Orosi 58/40/58/44/58

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Mostly clear

36/62

Friday

Partly cloudy

39/65

Saturday

Mostly clear

39/63

Sunday

Mostly clear

39/63

Monday

Mostly clear

40/66

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 21 through February 27:  This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures.  For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.

 

February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.      

 

February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation.  Temperatures should be marginally above average.

 

Winds Discussion:  winds will be mainly out of the northwest through Tuesday evening at 8 to 15 MPH.  Locally stronger gusts will be possible along the west side.  Winds Tuesday night through Thursday will be light and variable.

 

Rain Discussion:  There is a minimal chance of a few light showers this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon from two separate disturbances, mainly along the Sierra Nevada foothills.  Dry weather will return Tuesday night and continue through the remainder of this week and for at least the first half of next week.

 

Frost Discussion: It’s possible that on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, that river bottom and similar frost pockets may dip into the lower 30s for short durations.  Most locations will range in the mid 30s to the lower 40s.  a westerly flow will break through Wednesday night and Thursday, helping to modify the atmosphere through the remainder of this week and more than likely through next week, as well.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Low to mid 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/47%  Orange Cove, 100%/59%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 40%.  Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 30%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .58, Parlier .46, Arvin .57, Orange Cove .44, Porterville .NA, Delano .53. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 54, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 49, Delano 49

Record Temperatures: 79/24. Average Temperatures: 62/39

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1615.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.4 +3.5 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.11,  or -1.56 or 77% of average.  Month to Date: .29  or -.72

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  1.81, +or-  -1.92 or 49% of average.  Month to date  .09 or -.52

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 868, Parlier, 1005,  Arvin, 801, Belridge, 925, Shafter, 912, Stratford, 966, Delano, 1031, Porterville, 970

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 6:46 am   Sunset: 5:41 pm   Hours of Daylight:  10:53

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  60 /  38 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  60 /  36 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  59 /  42 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  61 /  42 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  64 /  37 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  61 /  40 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  59 /  36 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  59 /  37 / 0.11 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1549 /  59 /  43 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                         T    6.86    78    5.27    60     8.77    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.35    80    3.92    50     7.91    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.90    82    0.00     0     7.22    12.50

MADERA                        0.00       M     M    0.00     0     7.12    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    5.11    77    0.00     0     6.67    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.05    51    0.00     0     5.95    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.81    49    0.00     0     3.73     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.61    52    1.16    38     3.07     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    4.67    60    5.99    77     7.76    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    5.96    78    6.61    86     7.65    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.08    74    4.79    58     8.25    13.95

 

Next report: February 15/pm