February 18, 2021
Upper level high pressure off the California coast has shifted a little further west, increasing the high’s strength above central California. The air aloft has warmed a tad. The freezing level has risen to 9,200 feet, up from 7,600 feet 24 hours ago. This is not a significant jump but one which will allow warming to take place today and Friday with pleasant afternoons, generally in the mid to upper 60s.
The next Pacific storm will roll out of the Gulf of Alaska to a position just off the northern California coast Friday night. however, as has been the case for the past couple of weeks, most of the energy will slide into the Great Basin. Central California will just be clipped by this system with light rain and snow showers down the Sierra Nevada possibly as far south as Kings Canyon by early Saturday morning.
Sunday will be somewhat cooler as another push of northwesterly breezes moves down the valley. Look for another round of up slope clouds to develop against the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada Friday night and Saturday morning. some of this cloud cover may last all the way into Saturday morning, especially in Kern County.
A flat zone of upper level high pressure will cover the waters off the California coast Monday through Wednesday with the storm track running from west to east into the Pacific Northwest. The pattern for Thursday and beyond will be full of major changes. Models are in considerable battle with one another. However, it’s possible a large high may build northward over the eastern Pacific, all the way into Alaska while a cold trough of low pressure carves itself out over the western US, possibly setting up a colder northerly flow into California. We’ll have to study the evolution of this as we progress into next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear through tonight. partly cloudy Friday morning. Variable cloudiness Friday afternoon through Saturday night. mostly clear Sunday with the possible exception of Kern County and Southeastern Tulare County where lower clouds may last into Sunday morning. mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/34/67/41/61 | Reedley 65/34/67/42/62 | Dinuba 64/33/67/40/61 |
| Porterville 66/34/67/40/61 | Lindsay 65/32/67/41/61 | Delano 66/34/67/44/62 |
| Bakersfield 65/43/68/47/59 | Taft 64/46/67/49/59 | Arvin 67/36/68/44/58 |
| Lamont 66/38/68/43/58 | Pixley 66/34/67/41/61 | Tulare 64/33/67/40/60 |
| Woodlake 64/33/67/41/62 | Hanford 64/35/66/42/62 | Orosi 64/33/67/41/61 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 35/60 |
Monday
Mostly clear 38/65 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 41/70 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 42/71 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 43/71 |
Two Week Outlook: February 24 through March 2: This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures. For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday morning. Winds late Friday through Saturday will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH possible, mainly in western Fresno and Kings Counties. Winds Saturday night through Sunday will be light and variable.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Only the very coldest locations will approach the 32 degree mark tonight with most locations generally between 33 and 38 degrees. All locations will be above freezing Saturday morning due to cloud cover and wind conditions. It’s possible the very coldest locations Sunday and Monday mornings could dip into the lower 30s. most locations, however, will remain above freezing. Above freezing conditions can be expected Tuesday and thereafter. I do want to watch a weather pattern late next week and next weekend. Some models are showing a large high building northward into Alaska and a cold trough of low pressure digging southward into the western US, possibly generating a northerly flow over California. There are too many model solutions to really nail this down for now, but we’ll maintain a watchful eye as we progress through the week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
Af |
Mcfarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange cove
32 |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 89%/42% Porterville, 96%/45%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .67, Parlier .44, Arvin .49, Orange Cove .41, Porterville .NA, Delano .52. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 54, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville NA, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 84/27. Average Temperatures: 63/39
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1655. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.2 +3.0 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.11, or -1.78 or 74% of average. Month to Date: .29 or -.94
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -2.06 or 47% of average. Month to date .09 or -.66
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 897, Parlier, 1032, Arvin, 811, Belridge, 946, Shafter, 936, Stratford, 992, Delano, 1061, Porterville, 1006
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:43 am Sunset: 5:43 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:00
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 61 / 38 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 62 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 65 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 60 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 60 / 44 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.86 76 5.27 58 9.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.37 78 3.92 48 8.16 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.91 79 0.00 0 7.47 12.50
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.00 0 7.36 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.11 74 0.00 0 6.89 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.05 50 0.00 0 6.15 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.81 47 0.00 0 3.87 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 51 1.16 37 3.17 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.68 58 5.99 75 8.02 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.96 75 6.61 83 7.92 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.08 71 4.79 56 8.58 13.95
Next report: February 18/pm