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Forecast

February 19, 2021/report

February 19, 2021

The latest weather system has now moved into northern California with a cold front as far south as north/central California.  Doppler radar is showing a few sprinkles down to a Bay Area/Stockton/Sacramento line.  This system will move through central California tonight with some increase in cloud cover as a dry frontal system moves through.  Also, significant differences in pressure will be noted later tonight and Saturday at the surface which will generate gusty winds out of the northwest.  As these winds are lifted by the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada, upslope clouds will develop against the valley facing slopes, creating a low cloud deck over much of Kern and Tulare Counties.  The only precipitation expected from this event will be some light showers over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada from roughly Kings Canyon  north, especially Saturday morning.

 

It’s possible some drizzle may occur tonight and early Saturday near the base of the Tehachapi but nothing measurable is forecast.

 

Winds will decrease Saturday evening as the low races into the Desert Southwest.  A period of tranquil weather will begin Sunday as a zone of upper level high pressure extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean across California and into the Great Basin through Thursday.

 

The pattern for the late part of the workweek and next weekend is still in somewhat of a state of flux.  If there’s any theme, which there really isn’t, it’s that a large high will build into the Gulf of Alaska, possibly into Alaska, while a cold trough of low pressure carves out from western Canada southward into the western US with a colder northwesterly flow moving into California.  This pattern may result in precipitation but for now we’ll keep the forecast dry until more signs of a trend show up.

 

 

Forecast: A mix of high clouds and sunshine today.  Mostly cloudy tonight and Saturday morning.  clearing Saturday afternoon.  Remaining partly cloudy over Kern and Tulare Counties into Sunday morning.  mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Thursday.  Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 65/40/63/34/62 Reedley 66/41/59/33/63 Dinuba 65/40/59/33/60
Porterville 68/42/62/34/63 Lindsay 67/40/62/33/61 Delano 68/43/59/34/61
Bakersfield 68/45/59/38/63 Taft 66/48/59/44/62 Arvin 68/43/59/37/61
Lamont 68/44/59/36/62 Pixley 67/42/60/34/61 Tulare 65/40/59/33/61
Woodlake 66/41/59/33/60 Hanford 65/41/59/33/61 Orosi 65/40/59/33/61

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

35/65

Tuesday

Mostly clear

38/64

Wednesday

Mostly clear

40/66

Thursday

Partly cloudy

42/68

Friday

Partly cloudy

40/64

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 24 through March 2:  This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures.  For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.

 

March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest.  Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

 

March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and  most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record.  Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds will be generally light and variable today.  Winds tonight through Saturday evening will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH.  Local gusts to 35 MPH will be possible, mainly over Madera County, western Fresno County, and much of Kings County but locally elsewhere.  Winds will diminish Saturday night with winds of generally at or less than 10 MPH Sunday through Monday with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion:  Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight.  the air mass moving in behind tonight and Saturday’s frontal passage will be similar to the current air mass.  Coldest locations Sunday and Monday mornings, where skies clear, will potentially drop into the lower 30s with most locations ranging from 33 to 37 or so.  Beginning Tuesday morning, above freezing conditions can be expected for the remainder of the week.

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Mid to upper 30s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 86%/22%  Porterville, 93%/25%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 20%.  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 10%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .72, Parlier .50, Arvin .51, Orange Cove .46, Porterville .NA, Delano .56. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville NA, Delano 49

Record Temperatures: 79/28. Average Temperatures: 63/39

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1672.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.0 +2.7 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.11,  or -1.85 or 73% of average.  Month to Date: .29  or -1.01

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  1.81, +or-  -2.10 or 46% of average.  Month to date  .09 or -.70

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 907, Parlier, 1042,  Arvin, 820, Belridge, 955, Shafter, 944, Stratford, 1002, Delano, 1070, Porterville, 1017

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 6:41 am   Sunset: 5:45 pm   Hours of Daylight:  11:02

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /   M /  28 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  65 /  32 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  64 /  40 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  64 /  32 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  67 /  32 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  68 /  38 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  64 /  37 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  67 /  38 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1553 /  68 /  42 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  64 /  37 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    6.86    75    5.27    58     9.14    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.37    77    3.92    48     8.24    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.91    78       M     M     7.55    12.50

MADERA                        0.00       M     M       M     M     7.44    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    5.11    73       M     M     6.96    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.05    49       M     M     6.22    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.81    46       M     M     3.91     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.61    50    1.16    36     3.20     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    4.68    58    5.99    74     8.11    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    5.96    74    6.61    83     8.01    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.08    70    4.79    55     8.69    13.95

 

Next report: February 19/pm