February 19, 2021
Summary: Clouds have increased over the northern half of the valley this afternoon with abundant sunshine from Fresno County south. Most locations are enjoying temperatures in the mid 60s. a dying cold front will move down the valley tonight. the main low pressure system, however, will not swing through northern and central California until early Saturday morning. pressures will begin to rapidly fall over southern Nevada and the Desert Southwest and will rise off the northern California coast. This will set up a steep pressure gradient across central California which, in part, will lead to strong gusty winds down the valley late tonight through Saturday evening. Wind gusts to around 35 MPH will be possible, especially during the day Saturday. strongest gusts will be over Madera, Fresno, and Kings Counties.
As the low exits into the Desert Southwest Saturday night, surface high pressure will bump up over the northern Great Basin, ending the gusty northwesterly winds. It will also result in an off shore flow, kicking up the Santa Anas in Southern California late Sunday through Monday.
At the upper levels of the atmosphere, high pressure will build in from the west Sunday, bumping the storm track back into the Pacific Northwest. A weak trough will try to penetrate the high Tuesday night and Wednesday with little impact on our weather.
Next weekend, a large high will build over the eastern Pacific northward to the Gulf of Alaska and possibly even into Alaska while a cold trough of low pressure drops southward from western Canada and into the western US. For now, it would appear all of the active weather will remain to our east, but at the very least cooler weather would result along with a chance of showers up and down the Sierra Nevada.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight. partly cloudy Saturday morning, but mostly cloudy skies will continue over Kern County and eastern Tulare County. Clearing Saturday afternoon with possibly some lingering cloud cover over Kern County into Sunday morning. mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 41/61/34/62 | Reedley 42/62/34/63 | Dinuba 41/61/33/63 | |
| Porterville 43/61/34/63 | Lindsay 41/61/32/63 | Delano 43/62/34/63 | |
| Bakersfield 44/58/39/63 | Taft 47/55/44/62 | Arvin 44/58/35/63 | |
| Lamont 44/59/37/63 | Pixley 42/62/34/63 | Tulare 41/61/32/63 | |
| Woodlake 41/61/33/64 | Hanford 43/61/34/63 | Orosi 41/61/33/63 | |
Winds: Winds will be light to near calm through midnight. Late tonight through Saturday evening, winds will increase out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to near 35 MPH possible, especially from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds will decrease Saturday night to around 5 to 10 MPH. Winds Sunday through Monday will be light and variable.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost: A combination of increasing clouds and increasing winds out of the northwest after midnight will keep temperatures above freezing tonight. the air mass moving in from the northwest behind a weak weather system moving through late tonight and Saturday will not be all that different from the current air mass. Coldest locations Sunday and Monday mornings will drop into the lower 30s with most locations ranging from 33 to 37 each morning. For Tuesday and beyond, temperatures will remain above freezing.
Longer term, a potentially colder pattern will set up this weekend. For now, it doesn’t appear to be a serious frost threat, but just one that would create a strong northwesterly flow aloft with even a small possibility of showers. At this time, this pattern deserves scrutiny, but there’s no reason to believe a seriously cold pattern is on the horizon.
Next update: February 20/am