February 21, 2021
We are now entering into a quiet weather pattern. A large high resides over the eastern Pacific while surface high pressure is increasing in strength over the Great Basin. This will result in a moderate off shore flow today through Monday. Even though it’s a chilly morning out there, the air aloft has already warmed a great deal from 24 hours ago. The weather balloon sounding over Oakland pegged the freezing level at 9,200 feet, up from 3,600 feet 24 hours ago. The high will continue to build through Monday while the next weather system moves out of the Gulf of Alaska, through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin Monday night and Tuesday. The only impact on our weather will be a minor cooling trend along with some increasing cloud cover. Another low will follow a similar path Thursday with, again, very little impact on valley weather.
There are model differences for the pattern for the weekend and beyond. However, there’s no real signature of a pattern that would result in precipitation this week or well into the following week.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday but possibly partly cloudy at times Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Mostly clear Friday night through Sunday.
Short Term:
Madera 63/32/69/37/70 | Reedley 63/32/69/37/70 | Dinuba 61/31/69/36/69 |
Porterville 63/32/70/37/71 | Lindsay 63/30/70/36/70 | Delano 63/33/70/38/71 |
Bakersfield 64/39/71/44/71 | Taft 63/45/70/48/71 | Arvin 64/36/71/41/71 |
Lamont 64/37/70/40/72 | Pixley 63/32/71/39/70 | Tulare 62/31/68/37/69 |
Woodlake 62/32/68/37/69 | Hanford 62/33/70/37/71 | Orosi 61/31/68/37/70 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Wednesday
Mostly clear 39/67 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 40/65 |
Friday
Mostly clear 40/67 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 41/65 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 39/63 |
Two Week Outlook: February 24 through March 2: This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures. For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Wednesday will be variable to no more than 10 MPH during the afternoons and early evenings and 6 MPH during the night and morning hours with periods of calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost Discussion: As of 6:00am, Lindsay had chilled down to 29, Exeter, Lindcove, and Fowler were reporting 30, and Ivanhoe 31. Most other locations were between 32 and 37. Even though the air is warming aloft, it will take overnight low temperatures 24 hours to catch up, so expect no more than a degree or two of moderation for Monday morning with widespread low to mid 30s. Coldest locations tonight will dip down to around 29 to 32 degrees in isolated river bottom type situations. On Tuesday morning, only the chilliest locations will approach the freezing mark with above freezing conditions Wednesday through the weekend. Currently, there’s nothing on model information suggesting a pattern that would result in spring frost.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
Strathmore
32 |
Mcfarland
32 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Mid to upper 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 91%/39% Porterville, 84%/39%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .78, Parlier .60, Arvin .63, Orange Cove .57, Porterville .64, Delano .68. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 77/26. Average Temperatures: 63/40
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1698. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.0 +2.5 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.11, or -2.00 or 72% of average. Month to Date: .29 or -1.16
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -2.20 or 45% of average. Month to date .09 or -.80
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 915, Parlier, 1053, Arvin, 829, Belridge, 968, Shafter, 953, Stratford, 1015, Delano, 1084, Porterville, 1029
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:38 am Sunset: 5:47 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:06
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 60 / 40 / 0.01 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 39 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 60 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 60 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 58 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON T 6.86 74 5.27 57 9.32 14.06
MODESTO 0.01 6.38 76 3.92 47 8.41 13.11
MERCED 0.01 5.92 77 0.00 0 7.73 12.50
MADERA T 1.19 16 0.00 0 7.61 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.11 72 0.00 0 7.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.05 48 0.00 0 6.36 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.81 45 0.00 0 4.01 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 49 1.16 35 3.27 5.18
SALINAS 0.05 4.73 57 5.99 72 8.30 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.96 73 6.61 81 8.21 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.08 68 4.79 54 8.92 13.95
Next report: February 22/am