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Forecast

February 21, 2021/report

February 21, 2021

We are now entering into a quiet weather pattern.  A large high resides over the eastern Pacific while surface high pressure is increasing in strength over the Great Basin.  This will result in a moderate off shore flow today through Monday.  Even though it’s a chilly morning out there, the air aloft has already warmed a great deal from 24 hours ago.  The weather balloon sounding over Oakland pegged the freezing level at 9,200 feet, up from 3,600 feet 24 hours ago.  The high will continue to build through Monday while the next weather system moves out of the Gulf of Alaska, through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin Monday night and Tuesday.  The only impact on our weather will be a minor cooling trend along with some increasing cloud cover.  Another low will follow a similar path Thursday with, again, very little impact on valley weather.

 

There are model differences for the pattern for the weekend and beyond.  However, there’s no real signature of a pattern that would result in precipitation this week or well into the following week.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday but possibly partly cloudy at times Tuesday night and early Wednesday.  Mostly clear Friday night through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 63/32/69/37/70 Reedley 63/32/69/37/70 Dinuba 61/31/69/36/69
Porterville 63/32/70/37/71 Lindsay 63/30/70/36/70 Delano 63/33/70/38/71
Bakersfield 64/39/71/44/71 Taft 63/45/70/48/71 Arvin 64/36/71/41/71
Lamont 64/37/70/40/72 Pixley 63/32/71/39/70 Tulare 62/31/68/37/69
Woodlake 62/32/68/37/69 Hanford 62/33/70/37/71 Orosi 61/31/68/37/70

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Mostly clear

39/67

Thursday

Mostly clear

40/65

Friday

Mostly clear

40/67

Saturday

Mostly clear

41/65

Sunday

Mostly clear

39/63

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 24 through March 2:  This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures.  For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.

 

March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest.  Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

 

March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and  most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record.  Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds through Wednesday will be variable to no more than 10 MPH during the afternoons and early evenings and 6 MPH during the night and morning  hours with periods of calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion:  Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost Discussion: As of 6:00am, Lindsay had chilled down to 29, Exeter, Lindcove, and Fowler were reporting 30, and Ivanhoe 31.  Most other locations were between 32 and 37.  Even though the air is warming aloft, it will take overnight low temperatures 24 hours to catch up, so expect no more than a degree or two of moderation for Monday morning with widespread low to mid 30s.  Coldest locations tonight will dip down to around  29 to 32 degrees in isolated river bottom type situations.  On Tuesday morning, only the chilliest locations will approach the freezing mark with above freezing conditions Wednesday through the weekend.  Currently, there’s nothing on model information suggesting a pattern that would result in spring frost.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

32

Mcfarland

32

Ducor

32

Tea Pot Dome

31

Lindsay

31

Exeter

31

Famoso

Af

Madera

32

Belridge

31

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

29

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

32

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

32

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Mid to upper 30s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 91%/39%  Porterville, 84%/39%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .78, Parlier .60, Arvin .63, Orange Cove .57, Porterville .64, Delano .68. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano 49

Record Temperatures: 77/26. Average Temperatures: 63/40

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1698.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.0 +2.5 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.11,  or -2.00 or 72% of average.  Month to Date: .29  or -1.16

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  1.81, +or-  -2.20 or 45% of average.  Month to date  .09 or -.80

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 915, Parlier, 1053,  Arvin, 829, Belridge, 968, Shafter, 953, Stratford, 1015, Delano, 1084, Porterville, 1029

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 6:38 am   Sunset: 5:47 pm   Hours of Daylight:  11:06

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  60 /  40 / 0.01 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  60 /  39 /    T /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  59 /  45 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  61 /  46 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  63 /  43 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  60 /  46 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  60 /  46 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  60 /  46 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1551 /  58 /  48 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                         T    6.86    74    5.27    57     9.32    14.06

MODESTO                       0.01    6.38    76    3.92    47     8.41    13.11

MERCED                        0.01    5.92    77    0.00     0     7.73    12.50

MADERA                           T    1.19    16    0.00     0     7.61    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    5.11    72    0.00     0     7.11    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.05    48    0.00     0     6.36    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.81    45    0.00     0     4.01     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.61    49    1.16    35     3.27     5.18

SALINAS                       0.05    4.73    57    5.99    72     8.30    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    5.96    73    6.61    81     8.21    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.08    68    4.79    54     8.92    13.95

 

Next report: February 22/am