February 22, 2021
Today begins what will be a stellar weather week. A zone of upper level high pressure now covers the eastern Pacific Ocean, across California and into the Desert Southwest. The air aloft continues to warm. The freezing level above both Vandenberg AFB and Oakland is now north of 12,000 feet. This, combined with a fairly week off shore flow, will drive temperatures to near 70 degrees this afternoon and possibly into the lower 70s Tuesday.
The first of two weather systems will move through the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin. The first will do so tonight and Tuesday. The second will be on Thursday. Very little weather will affect central California other than some minor cooling. Over the weekend, the high will expand northward into the Gulf of Alaska and western Canada while a low center dives southward into Nevada and Utah. This will create a rather robust off shore flow both at the surface and aloft, but any active weather will remain to our east.
Medium range models are showing a low center approaching the California coast about the middle of next week. I’m not ready to put rain in the forecast, but it will be something to monitor in the coming days.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/37/70/37/66 | Reedley 70/36/70/37/67 | Dinuba 69/35/69/37/66 |
| Porterville 71/37/71/37/67 | Lindsay 70/34/70/36/67 | Delano 71/37/71/38/68 |
| Bakersfield 71/44/72/45/68 | Taft 69/46/70/49/68 | Arvin 72/39/72/40/68 |
| Lamont 71/39/72/41/69 | Pixley 70/35/70/36/67 | Tulare 69/35/69/36/66 |
| Woodlake 70/35/70/36/67 | Hanford 70/37/70/38/68 | Orosi 69/34/70/36/66 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 37/65 |
Friday
Mostly clear 38/66 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 38/67 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 36/65 |
Monday
Mostly clear 37/68 |
Two Week Outlook: March 1 through March 7: This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures. For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Thursday will be variable to no more than 10 MPH during the afternoons and early evenings and 6 MPH during the night and morning hours with periods of calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Lindsay chilled down to 29 degrees as of 6:00am followed by Orange Cove at 30. The remainder of the region was between 31 and 37.
Tonight, and each night for the remainder of the week, will be above freezing. We will have to watch the pattern for the coming weekend as the possibility of a strong off shore flow develops, possibly lowering dew points, but for now we’ll go with above freezing conditions through the weekend and into next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Mid to upper 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 86%/37% Porterville, 91%/39%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .78, Parlier .63, Arvin .67, Orange Cove .61, Porterville .68, Delano .70. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 78/30. Average Temperatures: 64/40
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1714. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 51.8 +2.2 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.11, or -2.08 or 71% of average. Month to Date: .29 or -1.24
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -2.24 or 45% of average. Month to date .09 or -.84
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 925, Parlier, 1064, Arvin, 839, Belridge, 976, Shafter, 961, Stratford, 1027, Delano, 1094, Porterville, 1040
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:38 am Sunset: 5:47 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:09
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 62 / 32 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 38 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 65 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 65 / 32 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 62 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.86 73 5.27 56 9.41 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.38 75 3.92 46 8.50 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.92 76 0.00 0 7.83 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.19 15 0.00 0 7.70 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.11 71 0.00 0 7.19 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.05 47 0.00 0 6.43 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.81 45 0.00 0 4.05 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 49 1.16 35 3.30 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.73 56 5.99 71 8.39 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.96 72 6.61 80 8.31 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.08 67 4.79 53 9.04 13.95
Next report: February 22/pm