February 25, 2021
Summary: The strong Santa Ana wind event of the past 24 hours has mixed down a cooler and drier air mass to the valley floor. Temperatures are averaging 5 to 7 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time while dew points are as much as 10 to 15 degrees off of what they were yesterday afternoon. Frost will be fairly widespread tonight due to the dry nature of the atmosphere and the fact that February has been extremely dry. More in the frost discussion below.
In the big picture, upper level high pressure is just off the west coast while disturbances race down the eastern rim of the high, through the Pacific Northwest, then into the Great Basin. One such disturbance is now moving into Idaho and northern Nevada and Utah. It will head southeastward into the Desert Southwest by Friday evening.
Meanwhile, that high off shore will build a ridge northeastward into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. This means winds at both the surface and aloft will be off shore again this weekend with gusty winds again moving down the west side of the valley, injecting additional dry air into the picture. Even though afternoons will be quite pleasant, mornings will be cold as we move deeper into the spring frost season.
We’re still looking at a pattern shift for next week as the high is suppressed southward and a long trough of low pressure drops southward out of the Gulf of Alaska, pinching off and forming a closed low off the central coast by Tuesday morning. models continue to show this system moving inland through the southern half of California Wednesday into early Thursday. It’s still expected to weaken as it moves in towards the coast. Even so, I feel it necessary to put a chance of light showers in the forecast for the middle of next week. These same models are projecting a chance of rain again about a week from Saturday.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness leading to a chance of light showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. partly cloudy Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/64/32/64 | Reedley 31/65/32/65 | Dinuba 29/64/31/64 | |
| Porterville 31/66/32/65 | Lindsay 29/65/31/65 | Delano 31/67/32/66 | |
| Bakersfield 37/66/38/64 | Taft 42/65/43/65 | Arvin 32/67/34/65 | |
| Lamont 32/66/33/65 | Pixley 29/66/31/65 | Tulare 29/64/30/64 | |
| Woodlake 30/64/31/65 | Hanford 32/66/33/65 | Orosi 30/64/31/65 | |
Winds: Winds through Friday will be variable to no more than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions overnight. Winds Friday night through Sunday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. North of Fresno and along the west side, winds to near 30 MPH are possible.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Tuesday. Models still trend towards a weakening weather system moving through the southern half of California Wednesday and Wednesday night. since there is a definite trend now, it’s a good idea to add a chance of light showers to the forecast, especially for Fresno County south, Wednesday and Wednesday night. these same models are hinting at a possible active pattern setting up about a week from Saturday.
Frost: Temperatures are running from 5 to 7 degrees lower than 24 hours ago while dew points have sunk 10 to 15 degrees. The Santa Ana wind event of the past 24 hours has mixed down a cooler and drier air mass onto the valley floor. Frost will be fairly widespread tonight due to clear skies, lower dew points, and the fact that the ground is again dry.
Coldest locations tonight in those traditional cold spots will drop down to27 to 28 degrees with most flatland locations ranging from 29 to 34. Most hillsides will be marginally above freezing.
Over the weekend, a reinforcing shot of dry air will move down the valley, arriving in the form of gusty winds down the west side Friday night and at times through Sunday. The bottom line is, low to mid 30s will be widespread through Monday morning with a chance of frost pockets briefly dipping in to the upper 20s. the northerly flow which will be in place over the weekend will be replaced by a westerly flow next week with even a chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. so, hopefully after Monday a prolonged period of above freezing weather will be evident.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
Mcfarland
31 |
Ducor
31 |
Ttea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next update: February 26/am