February 26, 2021
Summary: Low pressure is once again racing into the Great Basin this afternoon and has made it as far south as northern Nevada and northern Utah. A vast expanse of upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific Ocean and will build northeastward into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The low over the Great Basin will drop into the Four Corners region Sunday. This will quickly allow a surface high to jump up over the Great Basin, creating an off shore flow at the surface and aloft. North to northwest winds will increase down the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys tonight with some of these winds working their way into the extreme western flank of the valley as far south as roughly Avenal. This will inject a marginally cooler air mass down the valley along with another injection of dry air, resulting in more local frost Sunday and Monday mornings. More in the frost discussion below.
In the meantime, by Monday night a trough of low pressure will extend from the Gulf of Alaska to off the northern California coast. This low will pinch off, forming a closed low circulation which will weaken and move through southern California Tuesday night and Wednesday. what little dynamics this system still has when it moves onshore will be mainly south of Kern County so for now I’m going with a dry forecast all the way through next Friday.
The southwest flow ahead of this system as it moves on shore will pump milder air into central California along with raising dew points beginning Tuesday. There were models trending towards a possible wet pattern for next weekend, but as has been so often the case this winter, models seem to be backing off on that.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday night. mostly clear Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 34/63/32/63 | Reedley 34/64/31/63 | Dinuba 33/63/31/62 | |
| Porterville 33/65/31/64 | Lindsay 32/63/31/63 | Delano 34/64/32/64 | |
| Bakersfield 40/62/37/66 | Taft 43/61/40/63 | Arvin 36/62/33/65 | |
| Lamont 35/62/33/67 | Pixley 32/64/31/64 | Tulare 33/63/31/64 | |
| Woodlake 33/62/31/63 | Hanford 35/64/32/65 | Orosi 32/63/31/64 | |
Winds: Later tonight through early Sunday, winds from roughly Fresno County north will be out of the north to northwest at 10 to20 MPH with stronger gusts. Gusty, northerly winds at times will also increase in western Kings County and northwestern Kern County at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts. The remainder of the valley will observe winds at or less than 12 MPH, variable in nature. Light winds will return later Sunday through Monday with periods of calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather for at least the next week.
Frost: Temperatures tonight will average generally 1 to 3 degrees milder than this morning’s temperatures. A strong off shore flow will develop later tonight into early Sunday. Northerly winds aloft coupled with an off shore surface flow will inject marginally cooler air and a reinforcing shot of drier air down the valley. Therefore, widespread low to mid 30s can be expected Sunday and Monday mornings with a chance of the very coldest locations dropping down to 29 to 30 degrees.
On Monday night, winds aloft will be out of the southwest, injecting milder air into central California along with higher dew points for above freezing conditions from Wednesday on.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
mcFarland
af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next update: February 27/am