February 27, 2021
The pressure gradient or difference in surface pressure between Oregon and the Desert Southwest is rapidly increasing. The current pressure at Medford, Oregon is 30.24 inches of mercury while down at Phoenix, the pressure has fall to 29.83. this surface pressure difference combined with a northerly flow aloft is supporting gusty north to northwest winds down the west side of the valley. Currently, winds at the Lemoore NAS are sustained out of the northwest at 22 MPH while Hanford is reporting gusts as strong as 24 MPH. the pressure difference will peak about midday today then begin to decrease this evening as the low begins to pull off to the southeast. Winds south of Fresno County along the eastern half of the valley down to Kern County will be relatively light. Yet another shot of drier air will be injected into the valley for more areas of frost the next couple of mornings.
At the upper levels of the atmosphere, high pressure over the eastern Pacific is building a ridge into western Canada while a trough of low pressure is dropping south out of the Gulf of Alaska. This low will pinch off, forming a closed low circulation which will move through the southern half of California Tuesday night and Wednesday.
By the time it moves inland, this system will be fairly weak, but I wouldn’t completely rule out sprinkles or light showers. Once this system moves in by Wednesday evening, a flat zone of high pressure will set up over the eastern Pacific, creating a westerly flow aloft. For now, it appears this upcoming weak will be dry with the exception of that slight chance of sprinkles Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday night. increasing cloudiness by late Tuesday. A slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/32/65/32/71 | Reedley 64/32/65/33/72 | Dinuba 63/32/64/32/70 |
| Porterville 63/32/65/32/73 | Lindsay 63/31/64/32/72 | Delano 63/32/64/33/73 |
| Bakersfield 63/39/67/39/74 | Taft 60/42/64/45/71 | Arvin 63/35/68/35/74 |
| Lamont 63/34/67/36/73 | Pixley 63/31/66/32/73 | Tulare 62/31/64/32/71 |
| Woodlake 63/31/64/32/71 | Hanford 63/33/64/33/72 | Orosi 63/31/64/32/71 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Increasing clouds 36/63 |
Wednesday
Sprinkles possible 42/60 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 39/66 |
Friday
Mostly clear 42/70 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 41/68 |
Two Week Outlook: March 5 through March 11: This model is actually depicting a pattern conducive for above average precipitation. A cool northwest flow will prevail during this time frame, keeping temperatures below average.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Through this evening, from Fresno County north, winds will increase out of the north to northwest at 10 to20 MPH with stronger gusts. Gusts to 35 MPH will be possible, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor along the west side. These winds will die off later this evening and will become light and variable tonight. as the pressure gradient becomes briefly southeasterly Sunday, it’s possible some locally strong, gusty winds will develop near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. That gradient will decrease later Sunday night with light winds in all areas Monday through Tuesday.
Rain Discussion: A weak low pressure system will move across the southern half of California Tuesday night and Wednesday. there is a small risk of sprinkles or isolated light showers just about anywhere with the greatest risk over the mountain areas. Otherwise, this upcoming week will be dry with the likelihood of dry weather lasting well into next week.
Frost Discussion: Another injection of cool, dry air is moving down the valley. Already, stations along the far west side have been recording winds between 20 and 30 MPH. this will again lower dew points during the course of the day, allowing at least two more nights of low ot mid 30s with a chance of the coldest frost pockets briefly brushing the upper 20s. moderation will occur by Tuesday morning, dragging most locations above freezing. A mild westerly flow will follow Tuesday night and Wednesday, resulting in above freezing temperatures for the remainder of the week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
32 |
mcFarland
32 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. Mid to upper 20s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 79%/28% Porterville, 85%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .94, Parlier .81, Arvin .89, Orange Cove .81, Porterville .82, Delano .83. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 56, Delano 49.
Record Temperatures: 79/26. Average Temperatures: 65/41
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1775. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.0 +1.8 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.11, or -2.44 or 68% of average. Month to Date: .29 or -1.60
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -2.46 or 42% of average. Month to date .09 or -1.06
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 962, Parlier, 1110, Arvin, 866, Belridge, 1015, Shafter, 991, Stratford, 1066, Delano, 1137, Porterville, 1086
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:30 am Sunset: 5:53 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:20
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 68 / 33 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 66 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 70 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 54 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 61 / 36 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 69 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DHM / M / 37 / M /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.86 70 5.27 54 9.85 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.38 72 3.92 44 8.91 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.92 71 0.00 0 8.29 12.50
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 8.14 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.11 68 0.00 0 7.55 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.05 45 0.00 0 6.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.81 42 0.00 0 4.27 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 47 1.32 38 3.46 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.73 54 5.99 68 8.83 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.96 68 6.61 75 8.81 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.08 63 4.79 50 9.59 13.95
Next report: February 27/pm