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Forecast

February 28, 2021/report

February 28, 2021

The surface off shore flow configuration this morning has generated some locally gusty south to southeast winds at a few locations near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.  At last report, winds at the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine were sustained at 20 MPH, gusting to35 MPH.  these same downslope breezes heat by compression and will temperatures to near the 70 degree mark today, especially in Kern County.

 

A new pattern is beginning to evolve over the eastern Pacific.  An elongated trough of low pressure is stretching from the Gulf of Alaska to well west of the Oregon coastline.  This trough will pinch off, forming a closed low circulation well off the central coast by Monday night.  most models show this system evolving more slowly than earlier projections and a bit further south as it moves through the southern part of the state Wednesday into early Thursday.  Sprinkles will be possible over Kern County, however nothing measurable is anticipated.

 

Behind this system will essentially be a zonal or westerly flow across the eastern Pacific with the storm track remaining well to the north of central California for the remainder of the week.  Models for next week are very inconclusive at this time, but there is no signature that would suggest precipitation for now.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear skies through Tuesday.  Partly cloudy Tuesday  night through Wednesday night.  mostly clear Thursday through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 66/34/72/35/72 Reedley 68/34/72/35/72 Dinuba 65/33/71/34/71
Porterville 68/33/73/35/73 Lindsay 67/32/73/34/72 Delano 69/33/73/35/72
Bakersfield 70/40/74/41/73 Taft 67/46/71/46/70 Arvin 70/36/75/38/74
Lamont 70/36/74/37/72 Pixley 69/33/72/35/72 Tulare 66/32/71/34/71
Woodlake 66/32/72/35/71 Hanford 68/33/73/35/70 Orosi 66/32/72/34/71

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

39/68

Thursday

Mostly clear

40/67

Friday

Mostly clear

40/71

Saturday

Partly cloudy

44/68

Sunday

Mostly clear

41/70

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 7 through March 13:  This model is actually depicting a pattern conducive for above average precipitation.  A cool northwest flow will prevail during this time frame, keeping temperatures below average.

 

March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest.  Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

 

March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and  most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record.  Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.

 

Winds Discussion:  Over the next few hours, winds near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains will be out of the south to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH in isolated locations with local gusts to 35 MPH.  elsewhere, from today through Wednesday, winds will be variable to no more than 12 MPH late mornings and afternoons and at or less than 6 MPH nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion:  A few sprinkles will be possible in Kern County Wednesday and Wednesday night, otherwise this upcoming week will be dry. For now, there’s nothing on medium range models suggesting a pattern resulting in precipitation.

 

Frost Discussion: Fowler, Orange Cove, and Lindsay dropped down to 29 degrees this  morning as of 6:30 with all other locations in the low to  mid 30s.  For tonight, expect most locations to be 1 to 3 degrees warmer with further modification Tuesday morning.  a new pattern is setting up this week which will result in a westerly flow aloft.  This will favor higher dew points with above freezing conditions Wednesday through the remainder of the week.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

Af

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

Af

mcFarland

af

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

31

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

32

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. Mid teens to the lower 20s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 83%/33%  Porterville, 91%/32%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford 1.00, Parlier .83, Arvin .93, Orange Cove .81, Porterville .83, Delano .84. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 56, Delano 49.

Record Temperatures: 79/28. Average Temperatures: 65/41

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1787.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.0 +1.7 courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.11,  or -2.51 or 68% of average.  Month to Date: .29  or -1.67

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  1.81, +or-  -2.51 or 42% of average.  Month to date  .09 or -1.11

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1118,  Arvin, 875, Belridge, 1020, Shafter, 1000, Stratford, 1073, Delano, 1147, Porterville, 1097

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

 

Sunrise: 6:29 am   Sunset: 5:54 pm   Hours of Daylight:  11:22

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  65 /  40 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  64 /  39 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  65 /  43 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  66 /  44 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  67 /  39 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  64 /  38 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  63 /  40 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  63 /  32 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1551 /  62 /  45 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    6.86    69    5.27    53     9.93    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.38    71    3.92    44     8.99    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.92    71    0.00     0     8.37    12.50

MADERA                        0.00       M     M       M     M     8.23    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    5.11    67    0.00     0     7.62    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.05    45    0.00     0     6.84    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.81    42    0.00     0     4.32     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.61    46    1.32    38     3.49     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    4.73    53    5.99    67     8.92    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    5.96    67    6.61    74     8.91    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.08    63    4.79    49     9.69    13.95

 

Next report: March 1/am