March 4, 2021
The low pressure system which brought sprinkles to the south valley yesterday has raced eastward and is now centered over the Four Corners region. Over the next 48 hours, a temporary ridge of high pressure will build in from the west, resulting in a warming trend as readings top out near 70 today and the mid 70s Friday. By Friday evening, a trough of low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will move inland through the northern half of California, spreading light showers down to a Monterey/Merced line. I wouldn’t completely rule out a small chance of sprinkles or light showers brushing Fresno County late Friday night and Saturday morning.
More importantly, this is the system that will break the spine of the blocking ridge pattern which has resulted in well below average precipitation the past few months. The high will retrograde to the southwest over the ocean, allowing a series of low pressure systems to move from northwest to southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California.
The first wave will arrive late Monday and Monday night. with more to follow essentially for all of next week. The timing of each impulse is a bit up for grabs, but suffice it to say, there will be a chance of precipitation on any day from late Monday through Thursday. Some models show the development of a narrow ridge of high pressure next Friday only to be replaced by another low.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. a small chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers late Friday night and Saturday morning from Fresno County north. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night leading to a chance of showers late Monday afternoon. There will be a good chance of showers anytime from Monday night through Thursday interspersed with short periods of dry weather.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/37/74/41/65 | Reedley 69/36/72/41/65 | Dinuba 70/36/73/41/66 |
| Porterville 71/37/75/41/67 | Lindsay 70/37/73/40/65 | Delano 71/39/75/42/66 |
| Bakersfield 72/44/76/44/64 | Taft 69/47/74/48/64 | Arvin 71/40/75/43/64 |
| Lamont 71/40/77/44/64 | Pixley 71/38/74/42/65 | Tulare 69/36/72/41/65 |
| Woodlake 70/37/73/40/65 | Hanford 71/38/74/43/66 | Orosi 70/36/73/40/65 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Chance of showers 40/66 |
Monday
Chance of showers 41/61 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 43/59 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 38/60 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 38/61 |
Two Week Outlook: March 10 through March 16: This model shows a fairly strong indication of above average precipitation. The flow will be generally out of the northwest for somewhat below average temperatures.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Friday will be at or less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly in the night and morning hours. Winds Friday night and early Saturday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 12 MPH then will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH Saturday afternoon with light winds Saturday night and Sunday. Models for late Monday night through Wednesday show fairly sharp differences in pressure which could theoretically cause some strong, gusty winds in the extreme south valley. Much too early to be definitive on this. It could turn out to be nothing or, it could be strong winds.
Rain Discussion: There is a small chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers from Fresno County north later Friday night and Saturday morning. the remainder of the valley will be dry. From Saturday afternoon through Sunday night, dry conditions will continue. As explained in the summary above, the storm door will open widely beginning Monday. There will be a chance of showers from mid to late afternoon Monday with the likelihood of showers anytime from Monday night through next weekend. The timing of each system is a bit difficult to discern, but look for periods of showers interspersed with short periods of dry weather.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 56%/13% Porterville, 75%/14%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 1.12, Parlier .90, Arvin 1.02, Orange Cove .91, Porterville .89, Delano .89. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 57, Delano 50.
Record Temperatures: 80/26. Average Temperatures: 65/41
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1823. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 54.8 +1.3 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.11, or -2.51 or 65% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.14
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -2.51 or 41% of average. Month to date .00 or -.09
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128, Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:25 am Sunset: 5:56 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:29
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 72 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 74 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 74 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 75 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 75 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 76 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 72 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 74 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1533 / 74 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.86 67 5.27 52 10.18 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.38 69 3.92 42 9.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.92 68 M M 8.66 12.50
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 8.51 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.11 65 M M 7.83 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.05 43 M M 7.07 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.81 41 M M 4.45 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 45 1.32 37 3.57 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.73 52 6.03 66 9.17 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.96 65 6.63 72 9.20 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.08 61 4.86 49 9.99 13.95
Next report: March 4/pm