March 6, 2021
A rapidly weakening cold front is moving down the valley at this hour. There were a few sprinkles from Merced County north earlier, but they have since ended. It’s possible that now that the front is moving through that upslope clouds will develop along the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and, to a lesser extent, the southern Sierra Nevada into Sunday morning.
Now our attention is turned to the Gulf of Alaska where a low pressure system is developing and will drop southward parallel to the coast of the Pacific Northwest and will be centered just to the west of Crescent City Tuesday. The low will then slide southward, centering just west of the Bay Area Wednesday morning. as the cold low tracks southward off shore, bands of showers will move inland from time to time, resulting in periods of showers. We may see showers as early as Tuesday afternoon or evening. The highest probability of rain will be Wednesday as the center of circulation will be roughly 200 miles off the central coast.
The fact that the coldest and most unstable air will remain just off shore reduces the chance of thunderstorms. Models how show the low weakening then sliding through southern California Thursday. Unfortunately, it appears the pattern will once again turn dry for Friday and beyond as a ridge of upper level high pressure stretches from southwest to northeast over the eastern Pacific, ridging into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through Sunday morning. mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night. increasing clouds Tuesday leading to a chance of showers later in the day. Periods of showers will become likely later Tuesday night through Wednesday evening with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A chance of showers later Wednesday night with a slight chance of showers Thursday morning, mainly in Kern County. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday afternoon. Becoming mostly clear Thursday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 66/39/65/37/67 | Reedley 67/39/66/37/64 | Dinuba 66/38/65/37/64 |
| Porterville 68/38/65/37/65 | Lindsay 67/37/65/37/64 | Delano 68/39/65/37/65 |
| Bakersfield 68/43/65/41/65 | Taft 65/48/62/46/63 | Arvin 68/41/67/39/64 |
| Lamont 67/41/65/40/64 | Pixley 68/39/66/37/64 | Tulare 66/37/65/36/65 |
| Woodlake 67/39/65/38/65 | Hanford 68/39/66/37/64 | Orosi 67/37/66/36/65 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
PM showers 41/59 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 42/58 |
Thursday
AM showers possible 36/62 |
Friday
Mostly clear 38/65 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 40/70 |
Two Week Outlook: March 13 through March 19: This model indicates that in all likelihood a dry weather pattern will return. With upper level high pressure in charge, temperatures will rise to marginally above average.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 MPH. stronger gusts are possible, especially from Fresno County north. Later this evening through Monday, winds will be variable at no more than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will begin to increase out of the southeast at around 10 to 20 MPH at times. Stronger gusts are possible, mainly along the west side and from Fresno County north.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through Monday night. the chance for showers will begin to increase Tuesday, especially late in the day. Periods of showers will become likely Tuesday night through late Wednesday evening. Wednesday will be the day most likely to see rain. There is a slight risk of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Models continue to rapidly weaken the storm and move it through southern California Thursday.
Rainfall amounts from Tuesday through Thursday will vary widely due to the showery precipitation pattern. Along the western side of Fresno and Kings Counties, .10 to .25 seems plausible. Towards the center and east side of the valley, between .25 to as much as .50. over the valley portion of Kern County, about .10 to .20 seems likely. Dry weather will begin again Thursday, continuing through next weekend and well into the following week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Mid to upper 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/NA% Porterville, NA%/NA%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .97, Parlier .82, Arvin .94, Orange Cove .81, Porterville .85, Delano .85. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 57, Delano 50.
Record Temperatures: 86/31. Average Temperatures: 66/42
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1856. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 54.0 +0.2 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal Total for Fresno, 5.11, or -2.94 or 63% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.36
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -2.76 or 40% of average. Month to Date .00 or -.21
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128, Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:21 am Sunset: 5:59 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:36
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 72 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 75 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 75 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 75 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 75 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 78 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 74 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 76 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 76 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 71 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.86 66 5.27 51 10.42 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.38 67 3.92 41 9.47 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.92 66 M M 8.91 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.19 14 M M 8.78 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.11 63 M M 8.05 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.05 42 M M 7.30 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.81 40 M M 4.57 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 44 1.32 36 3.63 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.73 50 6.03 64 9.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.96 63 6.63 70 9.49 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.08 59 4.86 47 10.30 13.95
Next report: March 6/pm