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Forecast

March 6, 2021/update

 March 6, 2021

Considerable amounts of upslope clouds are banking up against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains.  Currently, a northwest flow is moving down the valley.  From Fresno County north and along the west side, most locations are reporting winds out of the northwest in the 10 to 20 MPH range.  The sounding above Meadows Field indicates the base of the overcast in Kern County is near 4,500 feet.  Skies from Fresno County north have generally cleared.

 

A weak ridge of upper level high pressure is now building in from the west and will maintain a dry pattern through Monday night.  the latest models for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame haven’t changed much over the past 24 hours.  A low pressure center currently developing in the Gulf of Alaska will drop southward off the coast of the Pacific Northwest to a position west of the Oregon coast by Sunday night.  the center of the storm’s circulation will be off the northwest California coast Tuesday night and just west of the Bay Area Wednesday morning.

 

as the low slides southward off shore, the counter clockwise circulation around the low will pinwheel bands of showers inland from time to time from Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday.  Some of the latest models indicate the center of circulation and its pool  of cold, unstable air will be just to our west Wednesday afternoon, therefore the risk of isolated thunderstorms is definitely plausible.  Springtime thunderstorms are typically accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail.

 

Unfortunately, this will be a one storm event as models continue to trend towards an upper high establishing, orienting from southwest to northeast off shore into the Pacific Northwest, resulting in a dry pattern later Thursday, continuing through next weekend and well into the following week.

 

Forecast:  partly to mostly cloudy tonight in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County.  Mostly clear elsewhere.  Mostly clear Sunday through Monday.  Increasing clouds Monday night.  a chance of showers Tuesday, mainly later in the day.  Periods of showers Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Paratly to mostly cloudy Thursday with a small chance of showers Thursday morning, mainly  in Kern county.  Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon.  Mostly clear Thursday night through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 38/64/37/64 Reedley 38/65/36/64 Dinuba 39/65/37/64
Porterville 39/65/38/65 Lindsay 37/65/35/64 Delano 39/66/37/65
Bakersfield 43/64/43/65 Taft 46/61/46/63 Arvin 44/63/41/64
Lamont 42/63/42/65 Pixley 38/65/36/64 Tulare 38/64/35/64
Woodlake 37/65/36/65 Hanford 39/65/37/65 Orosi 37/65/35/64

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds this evening will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH, diminishing and becoming light and variable after midnight.  Winds Sunday through Monday will be at or less than 12 MPH and variable.  Late Monday night and Tuesday, winds will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH, mainly from Fresno County north.

 

Rain Discussion:  Dry weather will continue through Monday night then the chance of showers will begin to increase Tuesday, especially later in the day.  Expect periods of showers Tuesday night through Wednesday night.  the risk for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening appears more likely now as the coldest and most unstable air will be just to our west during the time of maximum daytime heating.  The chance of showers will rapidly decrease Thursday morning with several days of dry weather thereafter.  It still looks like Western Fresno County and much of Kings county should record anywhere from a few tenths to possibly a third of an inch.  Towards the center and east side of the valley from Madera County down to Tulare County, one-fourth to one-half inch can be expected with perhaps a tenth or two over the valley portion of Kern County.  If isolated thunderstorms occur, locally heavier amounts are certainly possible.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

 

 

Next report: March 7/am