March 8, 2021
A very cold low continues to slowly drop southward off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Forecast models have not changed much on the timing or possible intensity of this storm. As the center of circulation jogs southward along the southern California coast Tuesday, the first bands of showers will move in from the west Tuesday afternoon with widespread shower activity anticipated Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. The center of circulation will be just to the northwest of the Bay Area early Wednesday morning then will move to a position in fairly close proximity to the valley Wednesday afternoon. We are into the time of year where a higher sun angle and longer days allow for stronger daytime heating. Assuming we have a few breaks in the cloud deck Wednesday afternoon…breaks that allow the ground to be heated and cause warm currents of air to rise skyward and interact with the cold unstable air aloft…well, this could be the catalyst for locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. Of course, small hail will be the main nemesis in these storms along with brief, heavy precipitation.
The low will begin to weaken as it shifts into southern California later Wednesday night. it’s possible that, if the back side of the low is still overhead Thursday, a few showers could pop out during the day. The center of circulation will weaken further and move into the Desert Southwest Friday through Saturday.
A ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west Thursday night and Friday, returning central California to a dry weather pattern. The next system will move through the Pacific Northwest, but will mainly drop into the Great Basin Sunday night and Monday for a slight chance of showers over the high Sierra. No precipitation is anticipated for the valley floor.
Forecast: partly cloudy tonight. increasing cloudiness Tuesday morning leading to an increasing chance of showers Tuesday afternoon. Showers likely at times Tuesday night through late Wednesday evening with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be accompanied by localized brief heavy rain and small hail. Showers tapering off late Wednesday night. a chance of widely scattered showers Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 39/60/41/56 | Reedley 38/62/40/57 | Dinuba 37/61/41/56 |
| Porterville 37/62/41/57 | Lindsay 36/61/40/56 | Delano 39/63/41/57 |
| Bakersfield 41/61/43/56 | Taft 45/61/47/54 | Arvin 40/62/42/56 |
| Lamont 40/62/42/56 | Pixley 37/61/41/56 | Tulare 36/61/40/55 |
| Woodlake 37/61/40/56 | Hanford 38/61/41/57 | Orosi 36/61/40/56 |
Winds Discussion: Winds tonight will be generally light and favorable with periods of near calm conditions through early Tuesday morning. Winds late Tuesday morning through early Wednesday will be mostly out of the east/southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH possible. Winds Wednesday night and Thursday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: Showers will begin to spread in from the west by midafternoon Tuesday. Periods of showers will be likely Tuesday night through late Wednesday evening. The risk factor for isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon and evening is relatively high and any storms that do break out will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and small hail. The showers will begin to tape off late Wednesday night. it’s possible the back side of this storm could be over head Thursday. The daytime heating effect could trigger additional shower activity Thursday, but most locations will be dry. Expect dry weather through the weekend and well into next week.
Frost Discussion: A; very cold spring storm will move through central California Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday. Freezing levels could actually drop below 4,000 feet, illustrating just how cold the air mass will be. When and if skies clear on Thursday and Friday mornings, isolated frost pockets could dip into the lower 30s, however no significant frost event is anticipated. The air mass will modify quickly over the weekend for a return to above freezing conditions which should last for at least a week.
Next report: March 9/am