March 9, 2021
As of the time of this writing, rain and snow showers had spread down the Sierra Nevada as far south as Tulare county. Numerous showers have spread over southern California. The center of circulation of the cold core low is just west of Crescent City this afternoon. The low will drift southward right along the coast tonight, centering just to the northwest of the Bay Area Wednesday morning. Wednesday may very well turn out to be an interesting day as the center of circulation should be near to the valley Wednesday afternoon and evening, meaning the coldest and most unstable portion of this storm will be right overhead during the time of maximum daytime heating. This will trigger numerous showers and isolated to possibly scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main challenge will be localized heavy rain and small hail.
Showers will continue well into the late evening hours Wednesday then will begin to taper off late Wednesday night. I want to keep a chance of scattered to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for Thursday as the back side of the low is projected to remain overhead, which could trigger widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
By Thursday night, the low will weaken and move into southeast California then will shift into the Four Corners region Friday.
There are now quite a few differences on models for the pattern for Sunday through Tuesday. A trough of low pressure will move out of the Gulf of Alaska. Some models are now projecting the southern end of this trough will pinch off, forming another cold core low which will move through northern and central California for a chance of showers.
Forecast: Showers tonight. numerous showers Wednesday through the late evening hours Wednesday. expect isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. These storms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Widely scattered showers later Wednesday night. scattered showers Thursday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. mostly clear Friday afternoon through Saturday night. increasing cloudiness Saturday night leading to a slight chance of showers Sunday night through Monday night. partly cloudy Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 41/56/35/57 | Reedley 42/56/37/57 | Dinuba 42/56/36/57 |
| Porterville 42/57/36/58 | Lindsay 41/56/35/57 | Delano 42/57/38/58 |
| Bakersfield 44/57/40/57 | Taft 46/54/40/55 | Arvin 43/57/40/57 |
| Lamont 43/57/39/57 | Pixley 42/56/36/57 | Tulare 41/56/35/57 |
| Woodlake 42/57/36/57 | Hanford 42/56/37/57 | Orosi 41/56/35/57 |
Winds Discussion: Winds tonight and Wednesday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, especially near showers. Winds Wednesday night and Thursday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Thursday night with light winds returning Friday.
Rain Discussion: Numerous showers will spread in from the west during the course of the night. On Wednesday, through the late evening hours, we should have a very interesting day with numerous showers. The chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms is relatively high Wednesday afternoon and evening. These storms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. The activity will become more widely scattered Wednesday night with a chance of scattered showers Thursday and a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Dry weather will return Thursday night and will last through at least Saturday night. some models this afternoon have done a 180 for Sunday through Tuesday. Some are now projecting a closed low pinching off from a trough of low pressure and moving into central California Sunday night and Monday. Others, however, continuing showing a dry weather pattern. For now, I feel best adding a slight chance of showers to the forecast for Sunday night through Monday night and see how models come into focus during the coming days.
Rainfall amounts from the current storm should range between .25 and .50 over Madera County, eastern Fresno County, and much of Tulare County. The west side of the valley and Kern County will be under a rain shadow with possibly .20 to .33. the valley portion of Kern County can expect .25 or less.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. there will be a small chance of isolated pockets in the lower 30s Thursday morning, however cloud cover and wind conditions will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 30s at most locations. Even though a warming trend will begin Friday, low 30s will be possible in frost pockets where skies are clear and winds are calm. No freeze threat is anticipated. Temperatures for Sunday and beyond will be above freezing.
Next report: March 10/am