March 10, 2021
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are rumbling through the valley this afternoon. Hail is being reported in the Visalia area and in downtown Fresno. In each case the diameter is reported at being ¼ inch. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue well into the late evening hours then will turn into scattered showers late tonight and Thursday morning. the center of circulation of the cold core low will drift southward to a position near Point Concepcion by Thursday afternoon. That means the cold pool of air will be above the southern half of the valley through Thursday evening. No doubt more convective showers and isolated thunderstorms will be generated by the daytime heating process Thursday into Thursday evening.
The low will finally track through southern California Thursday night through Friday, ending precipitation. A weak ridge of high pressure will begin to build in from the west Friday through Saturday night for a short period of dry weather.
The next storm in the northeast Pacific will dig a trough southward into the northern 2/3 of California Sunday night and Monday for a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north but with a slight chance elsewhere. After Monday, the storm track will migrate back into the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California.
Forecast: Showers into the late evening hours with isolated thunderstorms. Widely scattered showers later tonight and early Thursday morning. scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. A chance of widely scattered showers Thursday evening. Mostly cloudy later Thursday night and Friday morning. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday night. increasing cloudiness Sunday leading to a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north, Sunday night into Monday morning. mostly to partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/57/34/61 | Reedley 36/58/35/61 | Dinuba 35/58/34/60 |
| Porterville 36/58/35/61 | Lindsay 35/57/33/60 | Delano 37/58/36/61 |
| Bakersfield 39/58/39/60 | Taft 39/52/35/57 | Arvin 39/56/36/61 |
| Lamont 38/58/36/62 | Pixley 36/58/34/62 | Tulare 36/56/34/61 |
| Woodlake 36/58/35/61 | Hanford 37/58/36/62 | Orosi 35/57/34/60 |
Winds Discussion: Winds through Thursday will be generally variable at 8 to 15 MPH. Stronger gusts will be possible, mainly in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. Later Thursday night through Saturday, winds will be light and variable.
Rain Discussion: Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move through the valley through the late evening hours. Locally heavy downpours are possible with stronger showers and, of course, thunderstorms. Small hail will also be associated with any thunderstorms and possibly even with heavier showers. Already this afternoon I’ve received reports of ¼ inch hail at numerous locations. And for really good news…Bass Lake has reported 10 inches of new snow. The low will drift southward, centering near Point Conception by Thursday afternoon, meaning the cold pool of air will still be above the southern half of the valley. Look for more showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop Thursday afternoon and evening. Another round of localized heavy rain and small hail will be likely during that time frame.
Rainfall amounts from this evening through Thursday night will vary widely with anywhere from a few tenths to a third of an inch. More is possible under thunderstorms. Expect dry weather late Thursday night through Sunday.
A chance of light showers will be back in the forecast late Sunday through Monday morning, mainly from Fresno county north. Currently, the forecast still looks dry after Monday morning.
Frost Discussion: The vast majority of locations tonight will range from 34 to 41. It is, however, possible that the sky could open up just about anywhere, allowing river bottom and similar locations to drop into the lower 30s for short durations. On Friday morning, I am anticipating a great deal o f upslope clouds to bank up against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada, especially in Tulare County. This will mitigate frost possibilities in those areas underneath the cloud deck. A few locations Friday and Saturday mornings could dip to the lower 30s for short durations. Once we get past Saturday morning, the atmosphere will have modified enough to ensure above freezing conditions.
Next report: March 11/am