March 11, 2021
After a very active day yesterday, one location near Exeter picked up .44 with small hail. Rain fall amounts generally ranged from .25 to .50 at most locations. Today will not be quite as active, however the center of circulation of the cold core low has drifted southward to a position just west of Santa Maria. The freezing level taken above Vandenberg this morning is all the way down to 3,200 feet. This is verified dwell by surface observations in the mountains. As of 6:30am, Tehachapi at an elevation of just above 4,000 feet was reporting snow falling with a temperature of 32.
Once the daytime heating process gets revved up, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will again pick up, especially from Fresno County southward. Unlike yesterday, however, showers will be traveling from northeast to southwest due to the counterclockwise circulation around the low. As a result, the heaviest activity today will likely be along the west side and in Kern County. This storm and its pool of very cold unstable air will finally move through southern California Friday with a chance of showers over the far southern Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains. However, the chance of rain on the valley floor Friday is very low.
The storm will finally move into the Desert Southwest Saturday, allowing a weak ridge to move in from the west for a dry weekend. A weak trough of low pressure will then move through the Pacific Northwest, northern and central California. There will be a slight chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday morning, mainly from Fresno County north. After Monday, the storm track will migrate back into the Pacific Northwest, leaving California under west/northwest flow aloft, allowing temperatures to finally move back to near seasonal averages.
Forecast: A chance of scattered showers this morning. scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A slight chance of thunderstorms tonight. partly to mostly cloudy Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday morning. mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. increasing clouds Sunday afternoon leading to a chance of light showers Sunday night through Monday morning, mainly from FAT north. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/36/61/34/65 | Reedley 57/36/62/34/66 | Dinuba 56/35/61/33/65 |
| Porterville 57/36/63/34/66 | Lindsay 57/34/61/33/66 | Delano 57/38/62/35/67 |
| Bakersfield 58/40/62/52/41/66 | Taft 55/40/62/45/56 | Arvin 57/38/60/37/67 |
| Lamont 56/38/61/38/68 | Pixley 57/37/62/37/67 | Tulare 57/35/61/33/65 |
| Woodlake 57/36/61/33/67 | Hanford 58/38/62/35/66 | Orosi 56/35/61/33/65 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
PM showers possible 41/67 |
Monday
AM showers possible’ 43/60 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 37/63 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 39/65 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 40/71 |
Two Week Outlook: March 18 through March 24: This model finds generally a weak zone of high pressure over California and off shore. Temperatures can be expected to be marginally above average during this time frame with only a very low chance of precipitation.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: winds will be variable to around 15 MPH through tonight. stronger gusts will be possible near showers and thunderstorms. Later tonight through Sunday, expect winds of no more than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly in the night and morning hours.
Rain Discussion: Once the daytime heating process gets underway later this morning, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to percolate. Today’s activity will be more widely scattered than yesterday’s. from this point on, rainfall amounts will range from almost nothing to possibly as much as .50 if your location is in the path of a thunderstorm. Dry weather will return later tonight, continuing through Sunday morning. there will be a chance of light showers Sunday evening through Monday morning. if models pan out, after Monday morning dry conditions can be expected.
Frost Discussion: Most locations tonight and again Saturday morning, will range from 33 to 39 degrees. Some locations may remain in the lower 40s where cloud cover is dominant. However, the air mass above the valley floor is extremely cold with freezing levels down to 3,200 feet. Where skies clear for several hours, it’s possible frost pockets could chill down into the lower 30s for short durations. Fortunately, significant rain fell, soaking the ground, and this will aid in keeping temperatures above freezing. For Sunday morning and beyond, expect above freezing conditions.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 97%/50% Porterville, 92%/61%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .86, Parlier .82, Arvin .91, Orange Cove .78, Porterville .81, Delano .84. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 58, Delano 50.
Record Temperatures: 86/30. Average Temperatures: 67/42
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1923. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.8 -1.3 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.54, or -286 or 66% of average. Month to Date: .43 or -.28
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.07, +or- -2.71 or 40% of average. Month to date .26 or -.16
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128, Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:15 am Sunset: 6:03 Hours of Daylight: 11:48
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 53 / 42 / 0.23 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 54 / 43 / 0.17 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 43 / 0.42 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 54 / 42 / 0.32 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 59 / 43 / 0.18 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 55 / 46 / 0.10 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 44 / 0.23 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 53 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 54 / 43 / 0.18 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 54 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 53 / 42 / 0.05 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.23 7.42 69 5.43 50 10.80 14.06
MODESTO 0.23 6.71 68 3.92 40 9.85 13.11
MERCED 0.19 6.16 66 0.00 0 9.32 12.50
MADERA 0.17 1.36 15 0.00 0 9.16 12.02
FRESNO 0.43 5.54 66 0.00 0 8.40 11.50
HANFORD 0.32 3.37 44 0.00 0 7.63 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.10 1.91 40 0.00 0 4.78 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 43 1.51 40 3.74 5.18
SALINAS 0.33 5.38 55 6.12 62 9.82 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.25 6.35 64 7.09 71 9.97 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.37 6.60 61 5.16 48 10.79 13.95
Next report: March 11/pm