March 12, 2021
Heavy cloud cover remains over the southern half of the San Joaquin Valley this morning. the center of the cold core low has now drifted to a position over southeast California. The circulation pattern around the storm has winds aloft out of the northeast now. Wraparound moisture will continue to affect the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains with scattered showers. Dry weather will prevail over the valley floor through Sunday.
The low and its very cold air will progress into the Four Corners region Saturday, finally allowing the sun to break through. This will be short lived, however, as the next low moving out of the northeast Pacific will move through northern and central California late Sunday night and Monday. Models vary a great deal on the timing and potential for precipitation with this system. Light showers will be possible especially Monday, however some models are indicating this system will mainly move into the Great Basin, reducing the chance of showers.
The low will race into the Four Corners region Tuesday, allowing a flat zone of high pressure to become established over the eastern Pacific and California. The winds aloft from midweek through next weekend will be essentially out of the west, finally allowing temps to struggle up to seasonal values Wednesday and beyond. Central California will be precipitation free after Monday.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. partly cloudy this afternoon through tonight. mostly clear Saturday through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. mostly cloudy late Sunday night and Monday with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north. Mostly to partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning. mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/32/65/34/66 | Reedley 61/33/65/35/65 | Dinuba 61/32/65/35/66 |
| Porterville 61/32/66/34/67 | Lindsay 61/31/65/34/66 | Delano 62/32/66/35/67 |
| Bakersfield 60/41/65/42/67 | Taft 58/39/65/44/67 | Arvin 60/36/66/38/67 |
| Lamont 59/38/66/39/67 | Pixley 61/32/67/34/67 | Tulare 61/31/65/35/65 |
| Woodlake 61/32/66/35/67 | Hanford 61/31/65/34/66 | Orosi 61/31/65/35/66 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Chance of showers 40/65 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 34/66 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 38/69 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 38/71 |
Friday
Mostly clear 43/73 |
Two Week Outlook: March 18 through March 24: This model finds generally a weak zone of high pressure over California and off shore. Temperatures can be expected to be marginally above average during this time frame with only a very low chance of precipitation.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Sunday will be generally variable and at or less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry weather through Sunday. There will be a chance of light showers late Sunday night through Monday, mainly from Fresno County north. The storm’s track varies widely on model information. The best course of action is to call for most locations to remain dry and, where precipitation does occur, generally .10 or less can be anticipated. Expect dry weather Monday night through at least next weekend.
Frost Discussion: Coldest locations this morning, even under a cloud deck, are near the low 30s. even though the air mass will begin to modify, it remains quite cold. The freezing level over Vandenberg a few hours ago was only 4,100 feet.
Where skies clear tonight, readings will fall into the low to mid 30s. River bottom type locations could fall to 28 to 29 under the right parameters. The vast majority of locations will range from 30 to 37. Expect temperatures Sunday morning to be 3 to 4 degrees milder.
A weather system will move through Sunday night and Monday. As skies clear, it’s possible coldest locations Tuesday morning could approach the lower 30s with above freezing conditions from Wednesday and beyond.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
39 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/54% Porterville, 98%/56%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .78, Parlier .77, Arvin .87, Orange Cove .71, Porterville .75, Delano .79. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 55, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 58, Delano 50.
Record Temperatures: 84/28. Average Temperatures: 67/42
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1938. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.5 -1.7 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.54, or -2.94 or 65% of average. Month to Date: .43 or -.36
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.10, +or- -2.73 or 43% of average. Month to date .29 or -.18
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128, Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:12 am Sunset: 6:05 Hours of Daylight: 11:50
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 57 / 38 / 0.25 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 38 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 40 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 44 / 0.06 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 58 / 41 / 0.04 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 57 / 44 / 0.19 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 53 / 43 / 0.08 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 51 / 34 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 54 / 38 / 0.04 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1539 / 53 / 41 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 56 / 38 / 0.06 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.50 69 5.43 50 10.88 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.72 68 3.92 40 9.92 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.41 68 0.00 0 9.39 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.36 15 0.00 0 9.22 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.54 65 0.00 0 8.48 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 3.43 45 0.00 0 7.68 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.03 2.10 43 0.00 0 4.83 6.47
BISHOP T 1.61 43 1.53 41 3.76 5.18
SALINAS T 5.38 54 6.12 62 9.91 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.03 6.38 63 7.29 72 10.07 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.07 6.74 62 5.87 54 10.89 13.95
Next report: March 12/pm