March 15, 2021
The center of circulation of an extremely cold weather system is just above California at this hour. No surprise that convective showers and thunderstorms are breaking out. I’m already seeing reports of small hail in the northern San Joaquin Valley. Winds are screaming over the Kern County mountains and the deserts of southern California. Many locations have sustained winds between 30 and 40 MPH with gusts well into the 50s.
There is a tremendous amount of wind energy above the valley floor which will aid in keeping temperatures above where they could be tonight. more on this in the frost discussion below.
Currently, there’s a 12 millibar difference in pressure between San Francisco and Las Vegas and a 10 millibar difference in pressure between Bakersfield and Daggett. These winds will generate upslope clouds against the Kern County mountains and the Sierra Nevada tonight for plenty of cloud cover in the southern and eastern flanks of the valley. The low pressure system itself will quickly move into the Four Corners region Tuesday, allowing tranquil weather Tuesday through Thursday.
The next weather system will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Thursday then will form a weak trough into California Friday through the weekend. A cold front will move through the valley Friday and Friday night for a chance of light showers. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend but any shower activity will be confined to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
The trough will move eastward Sunday night. high pressure over the eastern Pacific will bulge into California Monday through Wednesday of next week for dry weather and a warming trend.
Forecast: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening, becoming partly cloudy overnight. Possibly remaining mostly cloudy in Kern and Tulare Counties through Tuesday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night leading to a chance of light showers Friday and Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/59/32/66 | Reedley 32/60/32/65 | Dinuba 31/59/32/65 |
| Porterville 32/60/32/66 | Lindsay 31/59/32/66 | Delano 33/60/32/67 |
| Bakersfield 38/59/39/68 | Taft 38/58/41/68 | Arvin 36/60/35/68 |
| Lamont 35/61/35/68 | Pixley 32/59/32/66 | Tulare 31/60/32/65 |
| Woodlake 31/59/32/65 | Hanford 32/61/33/65 | Orosi 31/59/32/64 |
Winds Discussion: Winds through this evening will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds after midnight will be light and variable to near calm. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be at or less than 12 MPH late mornings and afternoons and less than 6 MPH during the night and early morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: With a pool of extremely cold air above the valley floor, it’s not surprising to see convective shower activity and isolated thunderstorms breaking out this afternoon. Hail will be the main concern. Even some ice mixed in with heavier showers would not be a surprise. The shower activity is moving from northwest to southeast at around 35 MPH, so any given location shouldn’t pick up a heavy amount of rain due to the fast movement of these cells. After sunset, when the storm loses its heat engine, showers will begin to taper off, ending by later this evening. Expect dry weather Tuesday through Thursday night. a cold front will move down the valley Friday and Friday night for a chance of light showers. Any shower activity over the weekend will be confined to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. For now, it appears at least the first half of next week will be dry.
Frost Discussion: The pool of extremely cold air is above the valley floor this afternoon. It’s a very active situation out there with scattered showers and thunderstorms breaking out. Temperatures as of 1:00pm ranged from only 48 at Bakersfield to 52 at the Lemoore NAS. Fortunately, dew points aren’t critically low, running in the mid to upper 30s. Tehachapi at an elevation of 4,000 feet was reporting a temperature of 30 degrees at 1:00pm while Lodgepole was reporting 21 degrees. One advantage we have going for us tonight will be tremendous wind energy above the valley floor which will help create upslope clouds in Kern and Tulare Counties and will also keep mixing of the atmosphere going. This should keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s at most locations, however, with the air mass as cold as it is, be advised that if you have a low spot out there, and skies clear for a bit with calm winds, upper 20s are certainly possible. We may actually see more locations at or below freezing Wednesday morning due to mostly clear skies and little to no wind.
After Wednesday morning, this cold weather episode will be in the books as the strong March sun quickly modifies the lower levels of the atmosphere. Medium range models don’t show anything unusually cold on the weather horizon.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: March 16/am