May 13, 2021
There are subtle changes occurring in the overall weather pattern. They will not be noticeable today or even Friday. However, the strong upper high is beginning to weaken slightly. A thermal trough of low pressure currently stretches from central California to the Colorado River Valley. This has allowed the marine layer to slowly deepen to near 2,000 feet this morning. some of this modified sea breeze is moving through the Delta as winds at Travis AFB are out of the southwest, sustained at 21 MPH. Some of that sea breeze is leaking through Pacheco Pass. Winds at the dam are sustained at 14 MPH, gusting to 23 MPH. Minor cooling will no doubt occur from roughly Modesto northward and locally in western Merced County, but the remainder of the valley will be status quo through Friday.
Models continue to show a low pressure system dropping southward from the Pacific Northwest, centering near the Bay Area Saturday and possibly in the vicinity of Kern County Sunday. This, of course, will add lift to the atmosphere, triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Saturday and Sunday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. These systems can be quite tricky, so there is a small chance of isolated showers over the valley floor, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening, and possibly Sunday afternoon and evening. The low will move into western Arizona Monday, allowing a weak ridge to build in from the west.
After Wednesday of next week, models continue to show a trough of low pressure over the western 1/3 of the US which, at the very least, will keep temperatures in check.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday night. Variable cloudiness at times Saturday through Sunday with a slight chance of isolated showers, mainly during the afternoon and evening Saturday and Sunday. Clearing Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday through Wednesday night. partly cloudy Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 97/55/95/53/84 | Reedley 97/54/96/53/85 | Dinuba 96/54/96/52/84 |
| Porterville 98/55/96/54/86 | Lindsay 97/53/96/53/86 | Delano 97/57/96/54/85 |
| Bakersfield 97/65/96/62/86 | Taft 95/69/95/65/84 | Arvin 98/61/97/60/87 |
| Lamont 98/61/97/60/87 | Pixley 97/56/96/54/86 | Tulare 96/54/95/53/85 |
| Woodlake 96/54/95/53/85 | Hanford 98/56/97/54/85 | Orosi 96/54/95/53/85 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Slight chance of showers 54/84 |
Monday
Mostly clear 53/85 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 53/88 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 52/87 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 52/84 |
Two Week Outlook: May 20 through May 26: This model shows a trough of low pressure covering much of the western US with temperatures near to marginally below average. The chance of measurable rain will remain very low.
May: The old familiar 30 day outlook indicates above average temperatures for the western US including California. Since we’re now entering the dry season, expect precipitation to be almost nonexistent.
May, June, July: If you go by the guidance of this model, temperatures as we move into the summer months will be hotter than average. Expect typically dry weather.
Winds Discussion: Winds this morning will be light, becoming out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH this afternoon and evening. Winds Friday will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH. Local gusts to 30 MPH are possible, mainly near the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds Friday night through Sunday will occasionally be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH. Gusts over 30 MPH are possible, mainly along the west side.
Rain Discussion: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely over the Sierra Nevada Saturday and Sunday as a closed low moves through with some showers developing over the Coast Range and the Kern County mountains. Even though this system will be fairly dry, I cannot rule out a small chance of widely scattered showers Saturday through Sunday, mainly in the afternoons and evenings, and especially near the foothills. Dry weather will return Sunday night through Thursday of next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees for at least the next seven to ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Mid to upper 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 62%/14% Porterville, 63%/12%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.16, Parlier 1.84, Arvin 1.94, Orange Cove 1.99, Porterville 1.84, Delano 1.81. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 74, Arvin, 71, Orange Cove 74, Porterville 79, Delano 72.
Record Temperatures: 103/43. Average Temperatures: 82/57
Cooling Degree Days This Season:. 109 +22 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 71.8 +4.8 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -3.85 or 63% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -19
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.77, +or- -3.37 or 45% of average. Month to date .00 or -.13
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 5:54 am Sunset: 7:57 Hours of Daylight: 14:05
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 96 / 55 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 97 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 98 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 98 / 53 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 99 / 52 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 98 / 67 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 97 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 98 / 56 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 96 / 71 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 94 / 68 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 61 7.99 62 12.95 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 61 6.86 59 11.68 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 62 0.00 0 11.35 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.00 0 10.33 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 63 0.00 0 10.44 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 55 0.00 0 7.80 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 45 0.00 0 6.14 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.62 38 2.25 53 4.21 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.74 47 9.06 74 12.22 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 57 11.34 96 11.80 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.86 53 10.42 80 12.98 13.32
Next report: May 14/AM