May 14, 2021
The latest short term model information shows slow weakening of the upper high aloft as a weak trough of low pressure centers over Oregon and northwest California. The marine layer has deepened to 2,200 feet with a weak flow of marine air through the Delta and Pacheco Pass. This should be enough to modify temperatures from Merced County north with readings still soaring into the mid 90s for one more day in the central and south valley. Currently, winds at Travis AFB are out of the southwest at 19 MPH, gusting to 26. Late today and tonight, that marine layer will rapidly deepen, surging through the Delta and over the gaps and passes along the Coast Range, resulting in a good ten degrees of cooling Saturday.
Models show a closed low forming over northern California, centering it near the Bay Area Saturday morning. if most models are correct, the center of circulation will be almost right overhead Saturday night and Sunday morning. scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread down the Sierra Nevada late Saturday with the likelihood of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains Sunday. By Sunday evening, most models indicate the center of circulation will move over eastern San Bernardino County then into northwest Arizona Monday morning.
Even though this will be a moisture starved event, these types of systems during the month of May can occasionally be troublesome. That is why I want to keep a small chance of showers in the forecast over the valley floor late Saturday through Sunday. I must emphasize, however, the chance of measurable rain at any given location remains quite low. The best chance will be near the foothills surrounding the valley.
Weak high pressure will try to become reestablished late Monday through Tuesday. However, medium range models continue to indicate the next trough of low pressure will engulf the Pacific Northwest and northern California next Thursday and Friday. Models show any active weather remaining to our north, but it should maintain near to marginally below average temperatures through next Friday.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday morning. variable cloudiness late Saturday through Sunday evening with a small chance of isolated showers. Partly cloudy Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 93/53/84/50/81 | Reedley 95/53/84/50/82 | Dinuba 94/52/84/50/81 |
| Porterville 95/53/85/50/82 | Lindsay 95/53/85/50/83 | Delano 95/55/85/53/81 |
| Bakersfield 95/62/85/56/83 | Taft 93/65/84/59/81 | Arvin 95/58/85/56/82 |
| Lamont 96/58/85/54/83 | Pixley 95/54/83/51/82 | Tulare 93/52/83/50/81 |
| Woodlake 94/52/84/49/81 | Hanford 94/54/84/52/82 | Orosi 93/52/84/49/81 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 49/82 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 53/88 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 53/82 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 48/84 |
Friday
Mostly clear 48/80 |
Two Week Outlook: May 21 through May 27: This model shows the reestablishment of upper level high pressure over California, especially after the 25, allowing temperatures to rise to above average again. The chance of rain is extremely low.
May: The old familiar 30 day outlook indicates above average temperatures for the western US including California. Since we’re now entering the dry season, expect precipitation to be almost nonexistent.
May, June, July: If you go by the guidance of this model, temperatures as we move into the summer months will be hotter than average. Expect typically dry weather.
Winds Discussion: Winds this morning will be light, becoming mainly out of the northwest this afternoon at 8 to 15 MPH. Winds tonight through Saturday will increase out of the west then the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH. Gusts over 30 MPH are possible along the west side, especially along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds Saturday night through Sunday will be variable to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Light winds will return Sunday night and Monday.
Rain Discussion: A closed low will be right overhead late Saturday through Sunday for the likelihood of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the mountains surrounding the valley. This time of year, these types of systems can be quite tricky and have a reputation for defying model information. Therefore, we’ll go with a small chance of widely scattered showers late Saturday through early Sunday evening. Dry weather will return Sunday night, lasting through at least next Friday if not beyond.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees for at least the next seven to ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Upper 30s to the low 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 93%/16% Porterville, 76%/15%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.16, Parlier 1.83, Arvin 1.96, Orange Cove 2.01, Porterville 1.85, Delano 1.82. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 75, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove 74, Porterville 80, Delano 72.
Record Temperatures: 102/43. Average Temperatures: 82/57
Cooling Degree Days This Season:. 123 +31 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 72.4 +5.2 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -3.86 or 63% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -20
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.77, +or- -3.37 or 45% of average. Month to date .00 or -.13
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 5:51 am Sunset: 8:00 Hours of Daylight: 14:07
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 93 / 56 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 95 / 55 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 96 / 64 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 97 / 61 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 97 / 56 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 96 / 67 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 96 / 56 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 97 / 58 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 95 / 64 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 91 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 7.99 60 13.41 13.45
MODESTO T 7.12 57 6.86 55 12.39 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 62 0.00 0 11.37 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.35 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 63 0.00 0 10.45 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 55 0.00 0 7.81 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 45 0.00 0 6.14 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.62 38 2.25 53 4.22 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.74 47 9.06 74 12.23 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 57 11.34 96 11.81 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.86 53 10.42 80 12.99 13.32
Next report: May 15/AM