May 15, 2021
Satellite imagery is quite interesting this morning. the low cloud deck along the coast extends all the way to the last range of mountains separating the valley from the Coast Range. Low clouds moved through the Delta and into the lower Sacramento Valley. A strong push of marine air is currently moving into the valley. Winds at the top of the dam at Pacheco Pass are currently sustained at 36 MPH, gusting to 46. At Stockton, ,closer to the Delta, winds are gusting to 31 MPH. temperatures on the valley floor this morning are generally 3 to 9 degrees lower than 24 hours ago.
The center of circulation of a developing closed low is just to the northwest of Lake Tahoe at this hour. Models indicate the low will be almost right overhead this afternoon as scattered showers and thunderstorms spread southward along the Sierra Nevada, down to near Yosemite. By Sunday morning, the low will be centered near Kern County with a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. A small risk of scattered showers remains in the forecast for the valley floor tonight and this evening, mainly near the base of the mountains. Temperatures will drop from the mid 90s yesterday to the low to mid 80s today through Sunday.
By Monday morning, this system will be in northeast Arizona, allowing a weak ridge of high pressure to move in from the west Monday through Tuesday night. temperatures will warm to near 90 by Wednesday.
From Thursday through next weekend, a robust looking trough of low pressure will extend from British Columbia to central California. Some models show showers over northern California and the Sierra Nevada with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 70s next Friday through the weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear today. Partly cloudy tonight through Sunday night with a slight risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly near the foothills, through Sunday evening. Mostly clear Monday through Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday.
Short Term:
Madera 82/49/82/51/87 | Reedley 83/50/83/51/87 | Dinuba 82/49/82/49/86 |
Porterville 84/49/83/50/88 | Lindsay 82/48/82/49/87 | Delano 83/51/83/52/87 |
Bakersfield 84/58/82/57/86 | Taft 82/60/82/61/87 | Arvin 85/53/82/54/87 |
Lamont 85/54/82/54/86 | Pixley 83/50/83/51/87 | Tulare 82/48/82/49/86 |
Woodlake 83/48/83/48/87 | Hanford 83/51/83/53/87 | Orosi 82/48/82/48/86 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Tuesday
Mostly clear 53/86 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 51/90 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 48/82 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 45/76 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 46/77 |
Two Week Outlook: May 22 through May 28: This model now indicates a trough of low pressure will be more dominant along the west coast. Temperatures will range near to marginally below average with mostly dry conditions prevailing.
May: The old familiar 30 day outlook indicates above average temperatures for the western US including California. Since we’re now entering the dry season, expect precipitation to be almost nonexistent.
May, June, July: If you go by the guidance of this model, temperatures as we move into the summer months will be hotter than average. Expect typically dry weather.
Winds Discussion: Winds through tonigt will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to15 MPH with gusts to near 20MPH. Winds along the west side may gust to near 30 MPH with gusts near 40 MPH along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds Sunday and Sunday night will be variable to 15 MPH with stronger gusts at times. Light winds will return Monday through Tuesday.
Rain Discussion: There is a small risk of widely scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight through Sunday evening, mainly near the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountain foothills. The vast majority of locations will remain dry. If precipitation does occur, less than .10 is likely. Expect dry weather Sunday night through at least Thursday. Models do show showers spreading over northern California around Friday and Saturday of next week. For now, we’ll keep our forecast dry and see what models have to say over the next few days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 87%/16% Porterville, 74%/14%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.16, Parlier 1.83, Arvin 1.98, Orange Cove 2.03, Porterville 1.86, Delano 1.85. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 75, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove 75, Porterville 80, Delano 73.
Record Temperatures: 102/42. Average Temperatures: 83/58
Cooling Degree Days This Season:. 132 +35 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 72.5 +5.2 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -3.88 or 63% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -22
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.77, +or- -3.38 or 45% of average. Month to date .00 or -.14
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 5:51 am Sunset: 8:00 Hours of Daylight: 14:09
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 91 / 54 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 92 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 62 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 94 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 95 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 95 / 67 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 93 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 94 / 57 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 95 / 68 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 81 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 7.99 59 13.43 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 57 6.86 55 12.41 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 61 M M 11.39 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.36 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 63 M M 10.47 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 55 M M 7.82 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 45 M M 6.15 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.62 38 2.25 53 4.23 4.84
SALINAS 0.01 5.75 47 9.06 74 12.24 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 57 11.34 96 11.82 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.86 53 10.42 80 13.00 13.32
Next report: May 17/AM