Forecast

May 17, 2021/report

May 17, 2021

The closed low which resulted in much cooler temperatures over the weekend, has accelerated eastward into northern Arizona.  Even so, there’s still a fairly significant difference in surface pressure between San Francisco and Las Vegas.  The current altimeter reading at SFO is at 30.03 inches of mercury while at Las Vegas the reading is 29.80.  the winds through the Delta have slowed somewhat as Travis AFB is reporting sustained winds of 15 MPH.  however, a fairly strong push is moving through Pacheco Pass where winds are sustained at 22 MPH, gusting to 35 MPH.  through Tuesday night, weak upper level high pressure will build in from the eastern Pacific for a short term warming trend.  Wednesday will be a transition day as a developing low over British Columbia drops southward into northern California Thursday.  It will eventually form a large low pressure system, possibly centering over central California Friday and Saturday.  this system will give an excellent chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Friday through Monday, mainly during the afternoons and evenings.  So far, it appears any measurable precip will remain over the higher elevations.  Even so, this system will deserve close scrutiny as we move closer in time.  Temperatures will drop into the 70s Friday and Saturday along with elevated wind conditions.  The low will begin to open up into a low pressure wave Sunday and Monday, allowing for a warming trend.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday night.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Saturday.  mostly clear Sunday through Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 85/50/87/51/84 Reedley 86/50/88/52/83 Dinuba 85/50/87/52/84
Porterville 86/50/88/50/84 Lindsay 85/49/87/52/83 Delano 86/52/87/52/84
Bakersfield 85/58/87/57/83 Taft 84/62/85/60/83 Arvin 85/55/88/55/84
Lamont 86/55/88/55/85 Pixley 86/51/88/51/84 Tulare 84/50/87/51/83
Woodlake 84/49/87/51/84 Hanford 86/52/87/52/83 Orosi 85/49/87/51/83

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Mostly clear

48/84

Friday

Partly cloudy

46/76

Saturday

Partly cloudy

47/77

Sunday

Mostly clear

50/80

Monday

Mostly clear

52/85

 

Two Week Outlook:  May 24 through May 30:  This model now indicates a trough of low pressure will be more dominant along the west coast.  Temperatures will range near to marginally below average with mostly dry conditions prevailing.

 

May:  The old familiar 30 day outlook indicates above average temperatures for the western US including California.  Since we’re now entering the dry season, expect precipitation to be almost nonexistent.

 

May, June, July: If you go by the guidance of this model, temperatures as we move into the summer months will be hotter than average.  Expect typically dry weather.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds today will be variable to 15 MPH.  local gusts to 25 MPH are possible along the Interstate 5 corridor.  Winds tonight through Wednesday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 8 to 15 MPH.  during the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with near calm conditions.  Winds Wednesday night through Thursday will begin to pick up out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts along the west side.

 

Rain Discussion: As of now, it appears this week will continue to be dry.  However, a large area of low pressure will be over California Thursday through Saturday with the likelihood of scattered showers and storms over the higher elevations of the sierra Nevada.  We’ll continue to study this pattern through the week to see if any amendments need to be made to this forecast.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 87%/16%  Porterville, 74%/14%

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  ET RATES WERE UN-AVALIBLE THIS MORNING: Stratford 2.16, Parlier 1.83, Arvin 1.98, Orange Cove 2.03, Porterville 1.86, Delano 1.85. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 75, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove 75, Porterville 80, Delano 73.

Record Temperatures: 106/44. Average Temperatures: 83/58

Cooling Degree Days This Season:.  137 +30 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 71.8 +4.3 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.59  or -3.90 or 63% of average.  Month to Date: .00  or -24

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  2.77, +or-  -3.40 or 45% of average.  Month to date  .00 or -.16

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  , Parlier,  ,  Arvin,  , Belridge,    , Shafter,  , Stratford,  , Delano,  , Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 5:49 am   Sunset: 8:02  Hours of Daylight:  14:12

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  81 /  50 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  80 /  50 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  80 /  56 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  81 /  53 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  82 /  52 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  79 /  55 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  80 /  53 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  79 /  53 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1651 /  80 /  53 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.88    59    7.99    59    13.47    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    7.12    57    6.86    55    12.46    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    7.00    61       M     M    11.42    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M       M     M    10.39    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    6.59    63       M     M    10.49    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    4.29    55       M     M     7.84     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.77    45       M     M     6.17     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    1.62    38    2.25    53     4.24     4.84

SALINAS                          T    5.75    47    9.06    74    12.27    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.74    57   11.34    96    11.85    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.87    53   10.42    80    13.03    13.32

Next report: May 18/AM