May 21, 2021
By the standards of May 21, it is just plain cold out there this morning as we return to heavy jacket weather. Ivanhoe, Lindsay, Reedley, Lindcove, and Exeter each reported a low of 40 degrees this morning with most other ag locations in the low to mid 40s. the freezing level has dropped down to 6,300 feet.
The center of circulation is right over Yosemite at this hour with a strong surface low over southern Utah. As the daytime heating process gets underway, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will break out over the Sierra Nevada. The counter clockwise circulation around the upper low will nudge showers out over the foothills later this afternoon and evening. It’s possible an isolated shower or two could drift out over the valley floor. The chance of measurable rain is very low with the greatest risk being near the Sierra Nevada foothills. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few showers pop up over the Coast Range and the Kern County mountains.
The low will slowly shift eastward through Saturday, centering over western Nevada on Saturday then will accelerate northeastward, centering over eastern Idaho and western Wyoming Sunday. This will allow temperatures to rise from the lower 70s today to the low to mid 80s Sunday. A zone of weak upper level high pressure will build in from the west Sunday night through Tuesday. By Tuesday, readings will be somewhere near the 90 degree mark.
After Wednesday, models diverge somewhat, however if there’s any consensus at all, it’s that a weak trough of low pressure will move through, lowering temperatures to near seasonal levels by Thursday.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today and tonight with a small chance of isolated showers, mainly this afternoon and evening near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Mostly clear Saturday through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 73/42/78/46/84 | Reedley 74/41/77/45/83 | Dinuba 72/41/77/45/83 |
| Porterville 74/42/78/46/85 | Lindsay 73/41/77/46/84 | Delano 74/44/78/47/85 |
| Bakersfield 73/49/77/52/83 | Taft 71/48/77/55/83 | Arvin 73/46/77/49/84 |
| Lamont 72/45/77/51/84 | Pixley 73/42/77/46/84 | Tulare 72/41/77/45/83 |
| Woodlake 72/41/77/45/83 | Hanford 73/44/78/48/85 | Orosi 71/40/77/45/83 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 51/84 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 54/90 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 54/89 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 55/87 |
Friday
Mostly clear 53/87 |
Two Week Outlook: May 28 through June 3: This model is now depicting a ridge of upper level high pressure along the west coast, resulting in at least marginally above average temperatures. For now it appears dry conditions will continue.
May: The old familiar 30 day outlook indicates above average temperatures for the western US including California. Since we’re now entering the dry season, expect precipitation to be almost nonexistent.
May, June, July: If you go by the guidance of this model, temperatures as we move into the summer months will be hotter than average. Expect typically dry weather.
Winds Discussion: Winds through tonight will be mainly out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 MPH. Gusts to near 25 MPH are possible, especially along the west side. Winds Saturday through Monday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at around 8 to 15 MPH with generally light winds during the overnight hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The center of circulation of a moisture starved, cold core low is in close proximity. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will break out later today along the Sierra Nevada. The counterclockwise circulation around this storm will nudge some of these showers out over the foothills. I wouldn’t rule out a few of these showers drifting out over the valley floor, especially from midafternoon through the evening hours. The chance of measurable rain at any location is low. If these showers do move over the valley floor, generally less than .10 can be expected. Expect dry weather later tonight and for at least the next week to ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 57%/16% Porterville, 65%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 1.98, Parlier 1.78, Arvin 1.90, Orange Cove 1.92, Porterville 1.77, Delano 1.79. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 72, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove 75, Porterville 81, Delano 72.
Record Temperatures: 104/42. Average Temperatures: 84/59
Cooling Degree Days This Season:. 156 +26 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 71.2 +3.1 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -3.94 or 63% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -28
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.77, +or- -3.43 or 45% of average. Month to date .00 or -.19
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 5:47 am Sunset: 8:04 Hours of Daylight: 14:18
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 73 / 44 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 73 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 72 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 73 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 74 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 73 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1618 / 73 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 71 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 71 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 60 8.33 64 13.10 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 60 6.87 58 11.85 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 61 0.00 0 11.48 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.44 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 63 0.00 0 10.53 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 54 0.00 0 7.89 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 45 0.00 0 6.20 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.62 38 2.25 53 4.28 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.75 47 9.07 74 12.31 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 57 11.36 96 11.89 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.87 53 10.53 81 13.07 13.32
Next report: May 22/AM