June 1, 2021
All of the key signs are there for a heat wave which could easily match a mid summer episode. Above the valley floor, the air mass is extremely warm. Sandburg at an elevation of 4,100 feet was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees at 6 am. Even way up at Bear Peak in the high Sierra of Tulare County at 8,200 feet, a reading of 62 degrees is being observed. The freezing level is extremely high for this early in the summer season, standing at 16,700 feet. It’s appropriate that today is the first day of meteorological summer. Surface pressures are very flat, so no sea breeze will move into the valley, more than likely through the weekend.
The overall pattern is a strong ridge of high pressure extends from well out over the Pacific with a strong ridge from the center of the high into the Pacific Northwest. A weak upper low is off the north/central Baja coast and is creating a northeast flow aloft. This is allowing downslope heating to occur off the Sierra Nevada. Temperatures through Thursday will at least tease with record territory.
Over the weekend, the high will break down over the Pacific Northwest as a weak trough of low pressure tries to move inland to our north. The southern portion of this trough will pinch off, creating a cut off low this weekend. It will be too far off shore to have a direct impact on our weather. It will weaken the high enough to allow readings to fall into the mid to upper 90s by Sunday. Medium range models are trending towards a strong trough of low pressure moving into the western US Monday night and Tuesday, allowing a refreshing burst of modified marine air to move down the valley. It will lower temperatures to at least seasonal levels by the middle of next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear and hot through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Sunday with a slow cooling trend. Mostly clear and cooler Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 105/64/105/65/104 | Reedley 106/64/105/64/105 | Dinuba 104/62/104/63/104 |
| Porterville 106/65/105/66/104 | Lindsay 105/63/105/64/105 | Delano 107/66/106/67/105 |
| Bakersfield 106/75/106/75/105 | Taft 105/75/105/77/104 | Arvin 107/68/107/69/105 |
| Lamont 106/69/105/69/105 | Pixley 105/64/105/65/104 | Tulare 104/63/105/63/104 |
| Woodlake 105/64/105/65/104 | Hanford 107/66/106/66/105 | Orosi 104/63/105/63/104 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 64/101 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 61/99 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 61/97 |
Monday
Mostly clear 57/95 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 53/88 |
Two Week Outlook: June 8 through June 14: This model has reversed its pattern and now indicates a trough of low pressure will be more dominant along the west coast. With some luck, below average temperatures will prevail, however there remains little to no chance of precipitation.
June: This model is indicating a ridge of upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the Desert Southwest and, to a lesser extent, California, resulting in above average temperatures for the month with the usual dry conditions prevailing.
June, July, August: This model mimics the pattern of recent years, indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest being the most dominant feature, resulting in above average temperatures. Theoretically, this pattern blocks monsoonal moisture from moving northward. Typically, there’s little to no precipitation anyway, and that will be the case this summer.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds during the night and morning hours will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, through Friday.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/NA% Porterville, 86%/21%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.12, Parlier 1.93, Arvin 2.03, Orange Cove 2.09, Porterville 1.90, Delano NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 75, Arvin, 75, Orange Cove 76, Porterville 82, Delano 73.
Record Temperatures: 105/44. Average Temperatures: 87/58
Cooling Degree Days This Season:. 238 +23 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 70.6 +1.7 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.08 or 62% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -42
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.77, +or- -3.49 or 44% of average. Month to date .00 or -.25
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 5:41 am Sunset: 8:13 Hours of Daylight: 14:31
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 102 / 60 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 101 / 61 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 101 / 71 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 102 / 62 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 103 / 62 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1601 / 102 / 71 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 101 / 66 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 103 / 67 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 105 / 65 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 63 13.26 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 59 6.88 57 12.05 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.63 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.00 0 10.59 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 62 0.00 0 10.67 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 54 0.00 0 8.00 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.26 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.62 37 2.25 52 4.35 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.75 46 9.16 74 12.42 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.37 95 11.96 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.87 52 10.53 80 13.15 13.32
Next report: June 2/am