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Forecast

June 25, 2021/report

June 25, 2021

Chemo is really nasty stuff, as I’m sure many of you have been touched by it at some time in one way or another.  After being flattened yet again, I’m feeling back to normal and glad to be doing the work I love.  I have roughly another week and a half before my next round of poison.  I will beat this, but I fully realize the tools doctor’s use to combat cancer are not pleasant.  I pray for any of you in a similar situation.

 

Enjoy today as the next heat wave will begin in another 24 hours.  A rather odd pattern is setting up over the western US.  The weak upper low which turned temperatures downward the past few days has now moved off shore.  There are two high centers.   The first is centered over Washington state and the second off the southern California coast.  These two high centers will merge over the next 72 hours.  The first element of this pattern change will be much above average temperatures beginning Saturday with readings approaching the 110 degree mark Sunday through Tuesday.  The placement of this high will determine how the winds set up.  It could be easterly Sunday and possibly southeasterly starting Monday through Wednesday.  it’s still early in the monsoon season however some models are showing the rotation of monsoon moisture in from the Desert Southwest and up the Sierra Nevada by late Monday.  This will begin to set up the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts of southern California and up the southern Sierra Nevada.  It’s always possible that sprinkles or even an isolated thunderstorm or two could be nudged off the mountains and over the valley floor.  The chance of measurable rain at any given location will be very low.

 

Models depict strong upper level high pressure remaining over the west with triple digit temperatures continuing into next weekend.  The only factor that could come into play through all this is the amount of cloud cover on any given day.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear today.  Mostly clear and hot Saturday through Monday morning.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Saturday.  We’ll add the chance of a few sprinkles late Monday afternoon through Friday, mainly in the afternoons and evenings with even a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 96/63/103/70/108 Reedley 95/63/103/71/108 Dinuba 94/62/103/69/107
Porterville 95/63/103/71/107 Lindsay 95/62/102/68/108 Delano 95/67/103/72/109
Bakersfield 94/71/102/80/108 Taft 93/73/102/81/107 Arvin 95/68/102/74/108
Lamont 94/68/102/74/108 Pixley 96/67/103/72/108 Tulare 94/63/101/68/106
Woodlake 95/65/103/70/108 Hanford 95/67/103/74/108 Orosi 94/63/101/68/106

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Partly cloudy

73/109

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

71/106

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

72/105

Thursday

Partly cloudy

70/105

Friday

Partly cloudy

68/102

 

Two Week Outlook:  July 2 through July 8:  This model shows an active monsoon into the Desert Southwest and, to a lesser extent, southern California and the Sierra Nevada.  This pattern always offers a small chance of some rain with above average temperatures continuing.

 

June:  This model is indicating a ridge of upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the Desert Southwest and, to a lesser extent, California, resulting in above average temperatures for the month with the usual dry conditions prevailing.

 

June, July, August: This model mimics the pattern of recent years, indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest being the most dominant feature, resulting  in above average temperatures.  Theoretically, this pattern blocks monsoonal moisture from moving northward.  Typically, there’s little to no precipitation anyway, and that will be the case this summer.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds afternoons and evenings will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts through Monday.  Winds during the night and  morning hours will be generally light and variable and generally out of the northwest.

 

Rain:  Beginning late Monday, a rather oddball pattern will set up, resulting in an east or southeast flow aloft.  Monsoon moisture will rotate in from the east or even southeast, resulting in isolated to possibly even scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts of southern California and the Sierra Nevada.  It’s always possible sprinkles or isolated showers and thunderstorms could drift out over the valley floor.  The chance of rain at any given location will be fairly low beginning late Monday and lasting through at least next Friday, mainly in the afternoons and evenings.

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s. Kern:  Upper 40s to the lower 50s

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 63%/30%  Porterville, 71%/29%

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.24, Parlier 2.06, Arvin 2.20, Orange Cove 2.27, Porterville 2.10, Delano 2.07. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 82, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 84, Porterville NA, Delano 82.

Record Temperatures: 112/47. Average Temperatures: 94/63

Cooling Degree Days This Season:.  591 +135 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 79.4 +4.0 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.59  or -4.23 or 61% of average.  Month to Date: .00  or -31

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  2.77, +or-  -3.54 or 44% of average.  Month to date  .T or -.05

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  , Parlier,  ,  Arvin,  , Belridge,    , Shafter,  , Stratford,  , Delano,  , Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 5:42 am   Sunset: 8:22  Hours of Daylight:  14:40

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  90 /  60 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  91 /  59 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  92 /  66 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  93 /  64 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  95 /  60 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  93 /  66 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  91 /  63 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  94 /  61 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1650 /  95 /  62 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  87 /  57 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.88    59    8.35    63    13.35    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    7.12    58    6.94    57    12.19    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    7.00    60    0.00     0    11.75    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M    0.00     0    10.75    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    6.59    60    0.00     0    10.90    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    4.29    53    0.00     0     8.07     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.77    44    0.00     0     6.31     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    1.62    36    2.25    50     4.46     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    5.75    46    9.16    73    12.48    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.74    56   11.37    95    12.00    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.87    52   10.61    80    13.20    13.32

 

Next update: June 27/am