July 8, 2021
On this day in 1905, the high temperature at Fresno reached 115 degrees, a record that stands to this day. The historic high in Bakersfield, by the way, is 117. I don’t anticipate readings of that caliber. Nevertheless, it will be extremely hot with the heat wave peaking Sunday and Monday when hottest locations may approach 113 or so. To give you a few hints into the expanding heat wave, at 6:00 this morning, the temperature at Furnace Creek in Death Valley was 102. The marine layer is beginning to shrink as pressures aloft begin to strengthen. The current depth of the marine layer is down to 1,700 feet as opposed to 2,200 at this time yesterday.
The weak flow of marine air into the valley has now ceased. Winds at Travis AFB in the Delta are out of the west at just 10 MPH with only light winds through Pacheco Pass. In the meantime, in the upper atmosphere, significant warming is taking place. The freezing level over Oakland has jumped to 17,500 feet. Bear Peak, at an elevation of 8,200 feet was a balmy 70 degrees.
All the models are pretty much in unison in showing very strong upper level high pressure continuing to expand towards California. The center of circulation this morning is over southern Utah and will move over Nevada Saturday with the center of circulation being right over central California Sunday through Monday.
The wild card in this pattern is the monsoon. Satellite imagery shows a great deal of monsoon moisture over northern Baja and northwest Mexico. As the winds aloft become out of the east/southeast this weekend, it’s possible a few isolated thunderstorms could develop over the Sierra with periods of variable cloudiness over the valley floor. This may have some impact on temperatures. If there’s a great deal of cloud cover during the night, overnight lows might not sink lower than the mid 80s in large cities and mid 70s to near 80 elsewhere.
Most models are now shifting the upper high southeast, eventually settling over southern Arizona and northern Mexico by earlier next week. As a very weak trough of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest, enough marine air should trickle into the valley to lower temperatures into the 99-104 degree range Thursday and near 100 by Friday.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear and hot today and tonight. mostly clear and extremely hot Friday through Wednesday with occasional periods of high clouds at times. Mostly clear Thursday and slightly cooler.
Short Term:
| Madera 107/72/110/75/111 | Reedley 107/74/110/75/112 | Dinuba 105/71/109/74/110 |
| Porterville 107/75/110/77/111 | Lindsay 106/71/110/74/112 | Delano 107/76/110/80/112 |
| Bakersfield 107/81/110/85/112 | Taft 107/83/110/86/112 | Arvin 107/78/110/81/113 |
| Lamont 106/78/110/82//112 | Pixley 107/75/110/77/111 | Tulare 104/71/109/75/110 |
| Woodlake 104/70/109/74/110 | Hanford 107/75/110/77/112 | Orosi 104/71/109/75/110 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 78/112 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 77/112 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 74/109
|
Wednesday
Mostly clear 70/107 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 66/103 |
Two Week Outlook: July 15 through July 21: This model shows an active monsoon into the Desert Southwest and, to a lesser extent, southern California and the Sierra Nevada. This pattern always offers a small chance of some rain with above average temperatures continuing.
July: The 30 day outlook for July follows the trend set in June with above average temperatures and upper level high pressure that’s stronger than usual. The typical dry conditions will continue.
July, August, September: Above average temperatures can be expected for the next three months. This model is given equal chance of rain for not only California but also the parched desert southwest.
Winds Discussion: During the afternoon and evening, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Local gusts near 20 MPH are possible, mainly along the west side, during the later afternoon and overnight hours.
Rain: dry weather will continue for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 73%/18% Porterville, 73%/21%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.27, Parlier 2.04, Arvin 2.15, Orange Cove 2.22, Porterville 2.07 , Delano 2.01. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 83, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 82.
Record Temperatures: 115/51. Average Temperatures: 97/66
Cooling Degree Days This Season:. 844 +199 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 83.5 +3.5 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.33 or 60% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -01
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.77, +or- -3.34 or 44% of average. Month to date .00 or -.-00
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 5:48 am Sunset: 8:20 Hours of Daylight: 14:33
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 95 / 62 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 96 / 61 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 99 / 69 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 99 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 99 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 100 / 72 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 98 / 65 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 76 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 100 / 66 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 99 / 76 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 63 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 58 6.94 57 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.00 0 10.75 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 60 0.00 0 10.91 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 53 0.00 0 8.07 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.62 36 2.25 50 4.50 4.84
SALINAS T 5.77 46 9.16 73 12.49 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.37 95 12.00 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.87 52 10.61 80 13.21 13.32
Next report: July 9/am