July 21, 2021
Even though the marine layer is roughly 1,200 feet deep at Monterey, there is enough of an onshore flow to allow modified marine air into the northern half of the valley. Currently, winds at Pacheco Pass are out of the west at 14 MPH, gusting to 23. In the Delta, winds at Travis AFB are sustained out of the southwest at 18 MPH. this should be enough to allow mid to upper 90s from Merced County northward and near 100 in Madera County. Readings from Fresno County south will not receive the benefits of the sea breeze. Thus, readings between 100 and 105 will be commonplace through Friday.
Satellite imagery clearly depicts the latest batch of monsoon moisture moving into southern California. Doppler radar is picking up on a few light showers over No Man’s Land in San Bernardino County. The center of circulation of the upper high has shifted a bit further east and is now centered over Colorado. The clockwise flow around the high has the winds aloft above central California out of the south/southwest. This will efficiently keep the monsoon from moving into central California for now. The very active monsoon season this year will continue with heavy thunderstorms over the Desert Southwest.
Models do show the winds aloft becoming south/southeast by early next week. The monsoon will also shift further west over California, increasing the chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains and deserts. Next week appears to be another hot one as the high slides westward over Nevada and California. Some models show an upper low just off the central coast Monday through Wednesday. this could increase the possibility of thunderstorms over the mountains with possibly a stray shower or thunderstorm over the valley floor.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional mid and high level clouds through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Sunday night. variable cloudiness Monday through Wednesday with a slight chance of sprinkles of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Short Term:
| Madera 100/64/101/65/101 | Reedley 103/64/102/65/102 | Dinuba 101/64/101/65/102 |
| Porterville 103/64/103/65/102 | Lindsay 102/63/102/65/102 | Delano 103/66/103/67/102 |
| Bakersfield 103/75/103/77/102 | Taft 105/77/105/78/103 | Arvin 103/70/103/69/102 |
| Lamont 104/71/103/71/103 | Pixley 102/68/102/68/102 | Tulare 101/63/102/64/103 |
| Woodlake 102/64/102/65/102 | Hanford 103/65/103/66/103 | Orosi 101/63/102/65/103 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 66/101 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 66/100 |
Monday
Partly cloudy/slight chance of sprinkles 72/100
|
Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 68/98 |
Wednesday
Slight chance of showers 71/100 |
Two Week Outlook: July 27 through August 5: The monsoon is alive and well on this model and is moving into the Desert Southwest. On occasion, moisture from the monsoon works its way far enough west to affect central California. Occasional periods of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are likely over the Sierra Nevada. Measurable rain is unlikely, but cannot be eliminated over the valley floor. Temperatures will remain above average.
July: The 30 day outlook for July follows the trend set in June with above average temperatures and upper level high pressure that’s stronger than usual. The typical dry conditions will continue.
July, August, September: Above average temperatures can be expected for the next three months. This model is given equal chance of rain for not only California but also the parched desert southwest.
Winds Discussion: During the afternoon and evening, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Local gusts near 20 MPH are possible, mainly along the west side, during the later afternoon and overnight hours.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Sunday. Models show a significant batch of monsoonal moisture moving into California Sunday night. this will increase the chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and, to a lesser extent, the Kern County mountains. A weak upper low shows up just off the central coast during this time frame which may allow for a few sprinkles or even isolated showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor Monday through Wednesday of next week.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 56%/22% Porterville, 62%/20`%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 60%. PM dew points: mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.07, Parlier 1.92, Arvin 2.03, Orange Cove 2.15, Porterville 1.95, Delano 1.84. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 81, Arvin, 79, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 80.
Record Temperatures: 112/56. Average Temperatures: 98/67
Cooling Degree Days This Season:. 1129 +263 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 85.6 +4.6 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.34 or 60% of average. Month to Date: .02 or -.02
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.77, +or- -3.34 or 44% of average. Month to date .T or -.-00
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 5:57 am Sunset: 8:13 Hours of Daylight: 14:17
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 101 / 68 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 103 / 67 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 104 / 75 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 104 / 66 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 105 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 104 / 78 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 102 / 66 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 105 / 70 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 107 / 73 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 98 / 68 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 63 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 58 6.94 57 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 60 0.00 0 10.93 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 53 0.00 0 8.08 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.31 6.36
BISHOP T 1.62 35 2.25 49 4.59 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.79 46 9.16 73 12.49 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.37 94 12.04 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 6.87 52 10.61 80 13.23 13.32
Next report: July 22/am