July 22, 2021
It seems that a lot of prayers are being answered over the Desert Southwest and the Rocky Mountain region. A very active monsoon season continues as virtually 80% of the state of Arizona is under a flash flood watch. Hopefully for water storage, this will be the summer we have been waiting for despite the heat.
Considerable cloud cover has again moved into southern California. They are leftovers from thunderstorms over Arizona yesterday. The winds aloft are just a tad southwesterly, keeping most of the moisture from the monsoon in southern California and from the summit of the Sierra Nevada eastward. Strong upper level high pressure is centered over northern New Mexico this morning. forecast models show the high moving further west over the next couple of days, maintaining triple digit heat on the valley floor. Even though the marine layer is slightly deeper this morning, pressures are not low enough over the interior to tug that sea breeze inland for now.
We will have to closely watch the pattern for late Saturday night through Monday night as models show a very weak upper low developing off the southern California coast. The combination of that high over the Desert Southwest and this benign upper low will turn the winds aloft out of the southeast, moving a great deal of moisture from the monsoon into California. Thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday will be more likely over the Sierra Nevada and over the mountains and deserts of southern California. In these types of situations, we cannot rule out the possibility of isolated showers or even thunderstorms over the valley floor. Generally, only trace amounts to a few hundredths are recorded. Even so, we are headed into the drying season so we’ll be monitoring this closely.
We may see temperatures drop below the century mark Monday and Tuesday due to cloud cover and possibly an influx of marine air. From Wednesday on, upper level high pressure will again take over as the winds aloft become more southwesterly, nudging the monsoon back to the east.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional periods of high clouds through Saturday. variable cloudiness late Saturday night through Monday night with a small chance of sprinkles or isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday. Mostly clear Wednesday through Thursday with occasional high clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 100/64/103/66/102 | Reedley 103/63/103/65/103 | Dinuba 101/62/102/62/102 |
| Porterville 103/65/103/66/102 | Lindsay 102/63/103/68/102 | Delano 103/68/103/70/103 |
| Bakersfield 102/77/103/78/102 | Taft 103/77/102/77/102 | Arvin 104/72/104/73/102 |
| Lamont 103/71/103/72/101 | Pixley 103/65/103/67/102 | Tulare 102/63/103/65/103 |
| Woodlake 102/65/103/67/102 | Hanford 103/67/103/68/103 | Orosi 101/63/102/64/102 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Slight chance of showers 74/99 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 73/96 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 68/95 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 65/100 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 65/101 |
Two Week Outlook: July 29 through August 4: The monsoon is alive and well on this model and is moving into the Desert Southwest. On occasion, moisture from the monsoon works its way far enough west to affect central California. Occasional periods of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are likely over the Sierra Nevada. Measurable rain is unlikely, but cannot be eliminated over the valley floor. Temperatures will remain above average.
July: The 30 day outlook for July follows the trend set in June with above average temperatures and upper level high pressure that’s stronger than usual. The typical dry conditions will continue.
July, August, September: Above average temperatures can be expected for the next three months. This model is given equal chance of rain for not only California but also the parched desert southwest.
Winds Discussion: During the afternoon and evening, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Local gusts near 20 MPH are possible, mainly along the west side, during the later afternoon and overnight hours.
Rain: A very active monsoon remains over the Desert Southwest. In fact, parts of Arizona over the next 5 days are projected to record from 3 to 5 inches. For now, the monsoon is just to our east. That will change late Saturday night through Monday night as a benign low develops off the southern California coast. That, in conjunction with high pressure over the Desert Southwest, will turn the winds aloft out of the southeast. This could increase the chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts of southern California and the Sierra Nevada. What interests me is that little low off the south coast which may add enough lift to the atmosphere to sustain isolated showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor. Typically in these situations, just trace amounts are recorded to a few hundredths, but as we head into the drying season, we’ll monitor this closely. Again, for now we’re looking at late Saturday night through Monday night. Most, but not all, models show the winds aloft becoming more southwesterly, however there is some differences on models regarding this.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/20% Porterville, 74%/16`%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 60%. PM dew points: mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.07, Parlier 1.93, Arvin 2.07, Orange Cove 2.15, Porterville 1.93, Delano 1.85. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 81, Arvin, 79, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 80.
Record Temperatures: 112/56. Average Temperatures: 98/67
Cooling Degree Days This Season:. 1147 +274 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 85.4 +4.4 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.34 or 60% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.02
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.77, +or- -3.34 or 44% of average. Month to date .T or -.-00
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 5:58 am Sunset: 8:13 Hours of Daylight: 14:16
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 99 / 62 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 101 / 62 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 101 / 70 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 101 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 101 / 61 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 100 / 75 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 98 / 63 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 100 / 65 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 100 / 75 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 66 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 63 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 58 6.94 57 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.00 0 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 60 0.00 0 10.93 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 53 0.00 0 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.62 35 2.25 49 4.61 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.79 46 9.16 73 12.49 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.37 94 12.05 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.87 52 10.61 80 13.23 13.32
Next report: July 23/am