July 24, 2021
Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to pound parts of Arizona this morning. some of these showers have made it across the Colorado River near Needles. As the upper high builds westward and a weak upper air disturbance moves from east to west through southern Arizona, scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread northward through much of southern California over the next 36 hours or so. This continues to be a rather rare scenario as models show the upper low jogging northwestward just off the southern California coast.
For today, high clouds will again be apparent as we remain on the far north western fringe of the monsoonal flow. The marine layer is 1800 feet deep, however no sea breeze is moving through the Delta or Pacheco Pass. Thus, triple digits will continue to be a way of life.
Temperature forecasting for Sunday through Tuesday will be a bit rough as the richer tropical moisture arrives and dew points increase.
As the aforementioned upper low moves northwestward just off shore, numerous showers and thunderstorms will break out over the Sierra Nevada with a chance of localized flash flooding. The low may add enough lift to the atmosphere to sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor with the highest risk being Sunday night through Monday evening.
The clockwise flow around the high will rotate the monsoonal moisture northward out of our region by Wednesday. however, models continue to indicate relatively high dew points will remain which means a good chance of scattered afternoon and even thunderstorms over the summit of the Sierra for the remainder of next week, as well.
The valley will remain mostly to occasionally partly cloudy and hot.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through tonight. variable cloudiness Sunday through Tuesday evening. A slight chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday. a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday evening. Becoming partly cloudy Tuesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 102/67/101/71/96 | Reedley 103/67/100/70/97 | Dinuba 102/66/101/69/95 |
| Porterville 103/67/101/71/105 | Lindsay 102/65/101/70/96 | Delano 103/68/102/71/95 |
| Bakersfield 102/78/100/79/95 | Taft 102/80/99/81/95 | Arvin 103/72/101/78/95 |
| Lamont 102/70/101/72/96 | Pixley 102/68/101/70/97 | Tulare 102/65/101/69/95 |
| Woodlake 102/67/101/70/96 | Hanford 103/68/101/71/95 | Orosi 101/66/100/70/95 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Chance of showers 70/95 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 71/100 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 69/104 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 70/105 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 70/105 |
Two Week Outlook: July 31 through August 6: The monsoon is alive and well on this model and is moving into the Desert Southwest. On occasion, moisture from the monsoon works its way far enough west to affect central California. Occasional periods of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are likely over the Sierra Nevada. Measurable rain is unlikely, but cannot be eliminated over the valley floor. Temperatures will remain above average.
July: The 30 day outlook for July follows the trend set in June with above average temperatures and upper level high pressure that’s stronger than usual. The typical dry conditions will continue.
July, August, September: Above average temperatures can be expected for the next three months. This model is given equal chance of rain for not only California but also the parched desert southwest.
Winds Discussion: During the afternoon and evening, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Local gusts near 20 MPH are possible, mainly along the west side, during the later afternoon and overnight hours.
Rain: Scattered showers and thunderstorms have crossed the Arizona border into extreme southeast California. As a weak upper low moves through southern Arizona and skirts the California/Mexico border, activity will slowly cross into the southern part of the state. Models project the lower deserts will have dew points in the 70s, meaning very rich tropical air will slowly overspread the southland. As the winds aloft become southeasterly and that disturbance takes a northwest jog along the coast, numerous showers and thunderstorms will break out along the Sierra Nevada. The low will pass just to our west. There will be enough lift added to the atmosphere to sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the valley floor. The time of highest risk will be Monday night through Tuesday evening. Amounts of rain could be anywhere from nothing to .10. However, if a slow moving thunderstorm happens to nail your location, locally more is possible. All this juice will move to our northwest later Tuesday night with dry weather the remainder of next week with the exception of the Sierra Nevada which will have the likelihood of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 94%/18% Porterville, 68%/17`%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 70%. PM dew points: low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 40s
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.07, Parlier 1.93, Arvin 2.05, Orange Cove 2.12, Porterville 1.92, Delano 1.84. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 79, Parlier 81, Arvin, 79, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 80.
Record Temperatures: 113/55. Average Temperatures: 98/67
Cooling Degree Days This Season:. 1166 +276 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 85.3 +4.3 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.34 or 60% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.02
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.77, +or- -3.34 or 44% of average. Month to date .T or -.-00
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 5:59 am Sunset: 8:12 Hours of Daylight: 14:15
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 100 / 63 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 102 / 60 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 104 / 71 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 103 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 105 / 63 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 102 / 74 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 102 / 64 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 103 / 66 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 102 / 78 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 97 / 63 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 63 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 58 6.94 57 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.00 0 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 60 0.00 0 10.93 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 53 0.00 0 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.62 35 2.25 49 4.61 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.79 46 9.16 73 12.49 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.37 94 12.05 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.87 52 10.61 80 13.23 13.32
Next report: July 26/am