August 9, 2021
The visible satellite image this morning is quite telling. A large mass of smoke over northern California is literally choking out Nevada and Utah. A shallow layer of smoke is clearly depicted cover the entire San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys. The balloon sounding over Oakland this morning indicated a weak south/southwest flow aloft with a freezing level of 16,000 feet. The sounding over San Diego however is now out of the south/southeast. The marine layer is at 1,900 feet. However, even though there’s a weak onshore pressure difference, it will not be enough to cool the valley with the exception of the Delta region.
In the big picture, a zone of upper level high pressure now stretches from t he southeast US westward towards northern California. The high will expand northward and westward, generating another heat wave over the Pacific Northwest. As the flow aloft becomes southeasterly, mid and high level moisture via the monsoon will arrive over central California Tuesday night and Wednesday. a weak upper low will develop off the southern Oregon/northern California coast. This will aid in pulling monsoon moisture northward into Oregon.
The chance for scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will spread northwestward along the Sierra Nevada Wednesday. However, unlike the last monsoon round, this time the moisture content will be considerably less and mountain thunderstorms will be light.
Hot weather will be the order of the day through next Monday as temperatures rise into the 102 to 107 degree range. Our next chance at a cooling trend will arrive next Tuesday or Wednesday as a trough of low pressure will gleefully move into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast: Clear and hot today. Mostly clear Tuesday and Tuesday night with occasional high clouds and continued hot. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Monday and continued hot.
Short Term:
| Madera 102/65/103/67/105 | Reedley 102/64/103/66/105 | Dinuba 100/63/102/65/103 |
| Porterville 101/65/103/67/104 | Lindsay 101/63/103/66/104 | Delano 102/66/103/66/106 |
| Bakersfield 101/75/103/79/104 | Taft 102/76/103/79/104 | Arvin 102/71/104/73/105 |
| Lamont 101/70/103/72/106 | Pixley 101/65/103/69/104 | Tulare 100/63/102/66/103 |
| Woodlake 100/64/103/66/104 | Hanford 101/64/103/65.105 | Orosi 100/63/102/66/103 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 70/104 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 72/`105 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 72/106 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 70/102 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 71/103 |
Two Week Outlook: August 16 through August 27: This model indicates the usual dry weather will continue with above average temperatures. However, the monsoon will remain quite active over the Desert Southwest, so look for a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada.
July: The 30 day outlook for July follows the trend set in June with above average temperatures and upper level high pressure that’s stronger than usual. The typical dry conditions will continue.
July, August, September: Above average temperatures can be expected for the next three months. This model is given equal chance of rain for not only California but also the parched desert southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon and early evening will be mainly out of the northwest at around 5 to 12 MPH. Winds during the night and morning hours will be variable to around 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: Currently, there’s no precipitation expected. However, the next round of monsoon juice will move in from the southeast. Models show this will not compare with the last go-round, but will give daily chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada through Monday.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/22% Porterville, 69%/20`%, Dew Points: Hanford, low to mid 50s. Bakersfield Low/ Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.10, Parlier 1.90, Arvin 2.22, Orange Cove 2.14, Porterville 1.93, Delano 1.84. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 80.
Record Temperatures: 111/55. Average Temperatures: 97/66
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1500 +333 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 82.9 +1.9 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.35 or 60% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season,T yesterday, 2.77, +or- -3.34 or 44% of average. Month to date .T or -.-00
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:11 am Sunset: 7:55 Hours of Daylight: 13:45
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 100 / 63 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 101 / 61 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 102 / 71 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 102 / 61 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 104 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 102 / 74 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 99 / 63 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 101 / 65 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 101 / 77 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 63 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 58 6.94 57 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.00 0 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 60 0.00 0 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 53 0.00 0 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.68 36 2.25 48 4.68 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.79 46 9.18 73 12.51 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.37 94 12.08 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.87 52 10.61 80 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 10/am