August 10, 2021
Occasionally, in the mid to late summer months, a massive high will develop with two or three different centers. That is the case this morning where strong upper level high pressure stretches all the way from the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the southeast to off the California coast. Another strong high center is developing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Between these features is yet another high located over the Four Corners region. There are various heat advisories in effect from the northeast US to the Pacific Northwest.
In our neck of the woods, the winds aloft are gradually becoming southeasterly as monsoon moisture creeps northwestward into southern California. It’ll take another 24 hours or so for this mid and high level moisture to begin to very slowly slide in central California. At the surface, there is a very slight off shore flow while the marine layer remains around 1,900 feet. Winds at both Travis AFB and through Pacheco Pass are at less than 10 MPH.
With the high slowly building over California, triple digits will continue to be a way of life through at least Monday of next week. It appears this heat episode will peak Saturday and Sunday when I anticipate high temperatures to range from 103 on the lower end to around 108 in the hot spots. As monsoon moisture continues to creep northwest into California, afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be likely over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. We’re also monitoring Tropical Storm Kevin which is currently located about 400 miles west/southwest of Cabo San Lucas. As Kevin falls apart out there, it’s possible moisture from this system could get caught up in the flow aloft, although for now that chance appears to be relatively small.
The next cooling trend of any consequence will have to wait until the middle of next week as most models are indicating a trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest, deepening the marine layer and causing it to surge inland.
Forecast: Clear skies through tomorrow morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear Wednesday through Tuesday with periods of variable cloudiness at times.
Short Term:
| Madera 103/67/103/70/102 | Reedley 103/65/103/71/103 | Dinuba 102/65/103/69/103 |
| Porterville 104/67/105/70/105 | Lindsay 102/66/104/70/104 | Delano 104/68/105/71/105 |
| Bakersfield 104/78/103/80/103 | Taft 104/77/104/80/103 | Arvin 105/71/105/73/105 |
| Lamont 103/71/105/75/105 | Pixley 104/68/105/72/104 | Tulare 103/67/104/70/104 |
| Woodlake 102/66/104/69/104 | Hanford 104/68/104/71/104 | Orosi 102/66/104/70/104 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 72/105 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 73/106 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 72/106 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 70/103 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 68/100 |
Two Week Outlook: August 17 through August 23: This model now indicates the monsoon will move out of the desert southwest and more into Texas and Oklahoma. Temperatures will be near go marginally below average, for a change.
July: The 30 day outlook for July follows the trend set in June with above average temperatures and upper level high pressure that’s stronger than usual. The typical dry conditions will continue.
July, August, September: Above average temperatures can be expected for the next three months. This model is given equal chance of rain for not only California but also the parched desert southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon and early evening will be mainly out of the northwest at around 5 to 12 MPH. Winds during the night and morning hours will be variable to around 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: Monsoon moisture will begin to creep into the area from the southeast with daily chances of scattered to isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada during the afternoons and evenings. There’s always that slight chance of a sprinkle or two over the valley floor beginning Wednesday night. the chance of measurable precipitation remains extremely low through the following Wednesday and more than likely beyond.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 62%/22% Porterville, 63%/22`%, Dew Points: Hanford, low to mid 50s. Bakersfield Low/ Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 60%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.06, Parlier 1.88, Arvin 2.23, Orange Cove 2.12, Porterville 1.93, Delano 1.83. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 78.
Record Temperatures: 110/53. Average Temperatures: 97/66
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1518 +335 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 82.9 +1.9 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.35 or 60% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season,T yesterday, 2.77, +or- -3.34 or 44% of average. Month to date .T or -.-00
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:13 am Sunset: 7:54 Hours of Daylight: 13:43
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 100 / 65 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 101 / 63 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 102 / 71 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 103 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 103 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 103 / 73 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 99 / 63 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 74 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 102 / 65 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 102 / 75 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 98 / 67 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 63 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 58 6.94 57 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.00 0 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 60 0.00 0 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 53 0.00 0 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.68 36 2.25 48 4.68 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.79 46 9.18 73 12.51 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.37 94 12.08 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.87 52 10.61 80 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 11/am