August 11, 2021
Explosive thunderstorms erupted over the southern California mountains yesterday. A few locations reported as much as 2.5 inches of rain. The leading edge of the monsoonal flow has now reached Kern County and is moving northwestward up the Sierra Nevada. More and more mid and high level clouds will spread over the valley today as a southeast flow is now apparent. In fact, the latest balloon sounding above Oakland indicated that southeast flow with a freezing level near 6,300 feet.
At the surface, there’s really not an on or off shore flow as pressure gradients are flat. The marine layer has shrunk back to 1,600 feet, so no help there through the weekend.
In the big picture, strong upper level high pressure is located just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. It interconnects with another high center over the Four Corners region. That mess connects with yet another high off the coast of the Carolinas.
With slowly increasing pressure aloft, widespread triple digits can be expected through at least Monday and possibly Tuesday. This has been an unrelentless summer. So far in August, all but one day has been in triple digits. In July, all but three and in June 15.
Models indicate somewhat of a westward push of the Four Corners high into California this weekend, when the latest heat wave will peak. The latest batch of monsoonal flow will peak tonight and Thursday morning. it will then dry out somewhat late Thursday through Friday night with a weak batch of moisture moving through over the weekend. Temperatures Saturday through Monday will range between 103 and 108.
By late Monday, a trough of low pressure over British Columbia will form a trough southward into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. It’s possible that from Wednesday on, we may see temperatures dip into double digits. The winds aloft will become westerly and possibly even northwesterly, shoving the monsoon well to our east.
Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy today. Variable cloudiness tonight and Thursday with a slight chance of sprinkles. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 104/70/103/71/105 | Reedley 104/71/103/72/105 | Dinuba 103/70/102/71/104 |
| Porterville 105/72/103/72/106 | Lindsay 103/70/102/71/105 | Delano 102/69/102/70/104 |
| Bakersfield 105/80/103/80/106 | Taft 105/81/103/80/106 | Arvin 105/75/105/74/107 |
| Lamont 104/75/105/74/106 | Pixley 104/73/104/71/105 | Tulare 103/69/104/70/105 |
| Woodlake 103/70/102/71/105 | Hanford 105/72/103/71/106 | Orosi 102/69/102/70/104 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 73/107 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 72/106 |
Monday
Mostly clear 71/105 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 67/102 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 65/99 |
Two Week Outlook: August 17 through August 23: This model now indicates the monsoon will move out of the desert southwest and more into Texas and Oklahoma. Temperatures will be near go marginally below average, for a change.
July: The 30 day outlook for July follows the trend set in June with above average temperatures and upper level high pressure that’s stronger than usual. The typical dry conditions will continue.
July, August, September: Above average temperatures can be expected for the next three months. This model is given equal chance of rain for not only California but also the parched desert southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon and early evening will be mainly out of the northwest at around 5 to 12 MPH. Winds during the night and morning hours will be variable to around 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday..
Rain: a batch of monsoonal moisture will move through later today through Thursday. Afternoon and evening scattered to isolated thunderstorms will form over the Sierra Nevada. With a weak southeast flow aloft in place, a few sprinkles could occur over the valley floor, mainly tonight and Thursday morning. the chance of measurable rain at any location remains extremely low. Expect dry weather Thursday through the middle of next week and more than likely beyond.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/19% Porterville, 65%/21`%, Dew Points: Hanford, low to mid 50s. Bakersfield: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.04, Parlier 1.88, Arvin 2.24, Orange Cove 2.12, Porterville 1.94, Delano 1.83. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 79, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 78.
Record Temperatures: 113/54. Average Temperatures: 97/65
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1538 +339 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 83.1 +2.2 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.35 or 60% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season,T yesterday, 2.77, +or- -3.34 or 44% of average. Month to date .T or -.-00
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:14 am Sunset: 7:53 Hours of Daylight: 13:41
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 102 / 64 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 104 / 61 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 105 / 72 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 105 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 106 / 65 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 104 / 75 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 102 / 64 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 104 / 67 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 104 / 77 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 66 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 63 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 58 6.94 57 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.00 0 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 60 0.00 0 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 53 0.00 0 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.68 36 2.25 48 4.68 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.79 46 9.18 73 12.51 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.37 94 12.08 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.87 52 10.61 80 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 12/am