August 13, 2021
Looking at satellite imagery early this morning, there is one batch of cloud cover over western Nevada moving into San Bernardino and Inyo Counties. Just off the central coast, there is another batch which is mainly debris clouds left over from former tropical storm Kevin. Much of the state of Arizona remains under a flash flood watch as copious amounts of monsoonal moisture continues to work into the Desert Southwest. Some of this moisture will continue to move from southeast to northwest across central California through Monday for daily chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada.
The main center of upper level high pressure this morning is located over Utah. models still show this high drifting further west as we move through the weekend. It now appears Sunday and Monday will be the hottest in this latest round of intense summer heat.
At the surface, the4 pressure difference has increased a tad, allowing some modified marine air to move through the Delta and Pacheco Pass. Winds at Travis AFB in the Delta are currently out of the southwest at 17 MPH, gusting to 25. Through Pacheco Pass, winds were out of the west at 25 MPH, gusting to 35. the latest sounding above Fort Ord indicates the marine layer’s depth is at about 1,500 feet. We could see some minor cooling from Merced County north, but don’t look for any help from Fresno County south. Again, Sunday and Monday will likely be when the heat wave peaks with readings from 105 to 109 or so. On Tuesday, a trough of low pressure will stretch from central Canada southwestward into northern and central California. This will increase the on shore flow, beginning the process of marine air moving down the valley, finally lowering temperatures to around seasonal values by Thursday and Friday.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy and continued hot through Tuesday. Mostly clear Wednesday through Friday and cooler.
Short Term:
| Madera 102/69/104/70/107 | Reedley 104/70/105/72/108 | Dinuba 103/69/105/70/107 |
| Porterville 103/69/105/71/108 | Lindsay 103/68/104/72/107 | Delano 104/71/105/73/108 |
| Bakersfield 104/80/105/81/108 | Taft 103/82/104/83/109 | Arvin 103/73/106/75/109 |
| Lamont 104/74/105/77/108 | Pixley 104/70/105/72/108 | Tulare 103/68/104/71/107 |
| Woodlake 103/69/104/71/108 | Hanford 103/70/105/72/109 | Orosi 102/68/105/71/107 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 73/107 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 72/104 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 69/102 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 66/98 |
Friday
Mostly clear 65/98 |
Two Week Outlook: August 20 through August 26: This model now indicates the monsoon will move out of the desert southwest and more into Texas and Oklahoma. Temperatures will be near to marginally below average, for a change.
July: The 30 day outlook for July follows the trend set in June with above average temperatures and upper level high pressure that’s stronger than usual. The typical dry conditions will continue.
July, August, September: Above average temperatures can be expected for the next three months. This model is given equal chance of rain for not only California but also the parched desert southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon and early evening will be mainly out of the northwest at around 5 to 12 MPH. Winds during the night and morning hours will be variable to around 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain: A southeast flow will continue through Monday. There will be occasional periods of mid and high level clouds interspersed with bright sunshine behind the haze. Its extremely doubtful that rain will reach the valley floor as the amount of monsoonal moisture is fairly limited, unlike the Desert Southwest. Therefore, typical dry weather will continue with my usual monsoonal eye keeping watch.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 72%/22% Porterville, 66%/21`%, Dew Points: Hanford, low to mid 50s. Bakersfield: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 1.95, Parlier 1.82, Arvin 2.20, Orange Cove 2.06, Porterville 1.83, Delano 1.76. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 79, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 77.
Record Temperatures: 112/53. Average Temperatures: 97/65
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1583 +354 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 83.8 +3.1 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.35 or 60% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season,T yesterday, 2.77, +or- -3.34 or 44% of average. Month to date .T or -.-00
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:16 am Sunset: 7:51 Hours of Daylight: 13:37
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / M / 70 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 104 / 72 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 105 / 78 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 105 / 73 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 104 / 73 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 104 / 80 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 103 / 70 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 102 / 70 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 105 / 83 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 100 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 63 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 58 6.94 57 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.00 0 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 60 0.00 0 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 53 0.00 0 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.68 36 2.25 48 4.68 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.79 46 9.18 73 12.51 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.37 94 12.08 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.87 52 10.61 80 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 14/am