Forecast

September 13, 2021/report

September 13, 2021

A zone of upper level high pressure stretches from the southeastern US to a second high center over northwest Mexico and Arizona.  Pretty much of a zonal flow or west to east flow is in place across the northern tier states.  Central California is pretty much between these two features. This will result in somewhat above average temperatures through midweek.  The marine layer is only 800 feet deep at Monterey and winds through the Delta are light and variable with no chance of marine air making it into the valley until Wednesday.

 

On Thursday, a week upper low will approach the south/central California coast, beginning the process of deepening the marine layer and lowering pressures aloft for the beginning of a cooling trend.  A more substantial  cooling trend will occur over the weekend as a trough of low pressure digs southward from the  Gulf of Alaska and eventually moves into the Pacific Northwest and California.  This early in the season, this pattern does not bring rain, but will result in a substantial cooling trend.  By early next week, there will definitely be a tinge of fall in the as readings drop into the mid to upper 80s.

 

Forecast:   Mostly clear skies through Thursday.  Mostly clear Thursday night through Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 97/58/97/57/94 Reedley 98/57/97/57/97 Dinuba 96/56/96/56/95
Porterville 98/58/97/57/97 Lindsay 97/57/97/57/96 Delano 98/59/98/58/97
Bakersfield 97/71/97/70/96 Taft 97/75/96/71/95 Arvin 98/65/97/65/96
Lamont 97/64/97/64/96 Pixley 98/59/97/58/97 Tulare 97/57/96/57/96
Woodlake 97/57/97/56/97 Hanford 98/58/97/57/97 Orosi 97/58/97/56/96

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Mostly clear

56/95

Friday

Mostly clear

54/91

Saturday

Mostly clear

53/90

Sunday

Mostly clear

54/88

Monday

Mostly clear

52/86

 

Two Week Outlook:  September 20 through 26  This model indicates a trough of low pressure will dominate most of the western US, including California.  Temperatures will begin to fall to near to even marginally below average, however precipitation will continue to be unlikely.

 

September:  This model indicates high pressure will be dominant over the desert southwest and California.  The chance for precipitation will remain very low.  Temperatures will be marginally above average.

 

September, October, November: If this model has any credence, the dominant pattern of the summer will continue.  Expect temperatures to be marginally above average as we head into fall.  Precipitation will generally be below average, although the chance will begin to increase as we head into November.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds during the afternoon and evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph.  Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next seven to possibly ten days.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/24%  Porterville, 78%/24`%,  Dew Points: Mid to upper 40s.  Bakersfield: Mid to upper 40s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 1.78, Parlier 1.60, Arvin 1.87, Orange Cove 1.80, Porterville 1.62, Delano 1.55. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 80, Arvin, 74, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 74. *=data missing.

Record Temperatures: 106/48. Average Temperatures: 92/61

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  2079 +433 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 80.8 +3.7 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.59  or -4.36 or 60% of average.  Month to Date T  -.01.

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, T yesterday,  2.77, +or-  -3.55 or 44% of average.  Month to date  T or .-00

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  , Parlier,  ,  Arvin,  , Belridge,    ,Shafter,  , Stratford,  , Delano,  , Porterville,

Sunrise/Sunset:  7:41/7:07/12:29

NA=missing

Yesterday’s Weather:

 

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  94 /  64 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  97 /  62 /     T /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  98 /  72 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 : 100 /  71 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 : 100 /  67 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  98 /  73 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  98 /  66 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  99 /  66 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.88    59    8.35    62    13.38    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    7.12    58    6.94    57    12.21    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    7.00    60    0.00     0    11.75    11.80

MADERA                        0.00   99999929359    0.00     0    10.76    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    6.59    60    0.00     0    10.95    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    4.29    53    0.00     0     8.09     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.77    44    0.00     0     6.32     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    1.69    36    2.25    47     4.75     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    5.79    46    9.18    73    12.53    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.74    56   11.47    95    12.09    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.88    52   10.66    80    13.26    13.32

 

 

Next report: September 14