October 12, 2021
A very intense low pressure system has now slid eastward and is centered over southwest Utah. A narrow wedge of upper level high pressure runs from northeast to southwest across California then northeastward into the southern Rockies. Behind that system is another weaker trough of low pressure which will clip northern California Wednesday. The flow aloft is out of the north and is quite chilly. The freezing level taken over Oakland was 5,800 feet as of 6:00am. It’s not often we s ee temperatures below the 40 degree mark this early in the season, but it appears likely tonight in some areas.
The next system will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California Wednesday night and Thursday. Some increase in higher level clouds will be noted but no active weather is anticipated. The trough will begin to shift eastward Friday, allowing a high center over the eastern Pacific to shift into California. A warm bubble of subsiding air associated will warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s which is just about level with averages for this time of the season.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/36/70/41/72 | Reedley 68/35/71/41/72 | Dinuba 67/35/69/40/71 |
| Porterville 69/36/71/42/72 | Lindsay 68/34/70/41/71 | Delano 69/38/71/43/72 |
| Bakersfield 66/46/68/46/71 | Taft 66/48/69/49/71 | Arvin 65/40/69/44/71 |
| Lamont 66/41/69/43/71 | Pixley 67/37/71/42/72 | Tulare 66/36/70/41/72 |
| Woodlake 68/36/69/41/72 | Hanford 68/37/71/42/83 | Orosi 67/37/70/41/71 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 43/73 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 44/79 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 47/82 |
Monday
Mostly clear 48/83 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 47/79 |
Two Week Outlook: October 18 through October 24: This model is showing a signature for precipitation for much of California. A deep trough of low pressure will stretch north to south along the west coast, so anything that moves out of the trough will have the chance of spreading precipitation into California. Temperatures will drop below seasonal averages.
Winds Discussion: West of Highway 99 and north of Kern County, winds will continue out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH. Elsewhere, winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH. Winds this afternoon through Friday will be generally variable to no more than 12 MPH afternoons and early evenings and light to near calm during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next seven to possibly ten days.
Frost: It is fairly rare to see temperatures drop into the 30s this early in the season. However, the strong, gusty winds of the past 24 hours and a cold air mass now in place will result in mid to upper 30s in colder locations after midnight. Model information indicates the very coldest low areas could potentially drop to 30 to 35 but only for short durations. On Thursday morning, most locations will moderate by 4 or 5 degrees with the coldest locations down to 37 to 40 or so. All locations will be above freezing Friday and beyond.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/17% Porterville, 63%/17`%,
Dew Points: Hanford, low to mid 50s. Bakersfield: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 1.75, Parlier 1.59, Arvin 1.81, Orange Cove 1.74, Porterville 1.62, Delano 1.53. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 76, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 72.
Record Temperatures: 108/49. Average Temperatures: 93/65
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1704 +370 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 78.6 +1.1 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.35 or 60% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season,T yesterday, 2.77, +or- -3.35 or 44% of average. Month to date .T or -.-00
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:37 am Sunset: 7:42 Hours of Daylight: 12:41
Yesterday’s Weather
:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 104 / 65 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 105 / 65 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 106 / 74 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 105 / 67 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 107 / 66 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 103 / 78 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 103 / 67 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 103 / 69 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 62 13.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 58 6.94 57 12.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 9999 92928 0.00 0 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 60 0.00 0 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 53 0.00 0 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.32 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.69 36 2.25 47 4.74 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.79 46 9.18 73 12.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.47 95 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.88 52 10.66 80 13.26 13.32
Next report: October 13