November 9, 2021
From northern Fresno County up through merced County, rainfall amounts between .25 and .33 have been recorded. The main band of energy is currently moving through Kern County with light showers. Further north, the precipitation has largely ended, however there’s enough instability in the atmosphere to keep a chance of showers in the forecast for the rest of the day. There have been reports of snow down to roughly 6,500 feet, but the balloon sounding above Oakland a short time ago showed a freezing level at just above the 10,000 foot mark. As a result, snow levels will be rising as the day wears on.
Beginning Wednesday, a strong upper level high pressure system will develop southwest of the southern California coast. It will build into the Pacific Northwest, driving the storm track well to our north. The high will create a warm air inversion above the valley floor with all the necessary ingredients for the formation of fog and low clouds. The fog should be at a minimal tonight, however, as I anticipate a deck of lower level clouds banking up against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi mountains and the west facing slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada.
A warming trend will take place as the week wears on. The amount of fog and low clouds will determine temperatures that will likely warm into the 70s Friday through Tuesday. However, if we do observe a low cloud deck forming, daytime highs will be considerably cooler.
After today, dry weather will prevail for the next week to possibly ten days. some medium range models are suggesting the high will break down around the 20th or so.
Forecast: A chance of showers today, mainly this morning. Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight and Wednesday morning with patchy fog. Mostly clear Wednesday on through Tuesday of next week with increasing amounts of fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
Madera 65/45/66/43/68 | Reedley 66/46/66/44/67 | Dinuba 65/44/65/45/68 |
Porterville 67/46/68/48/68 | Lindsay 66/44/67/45/68 | Delano 65/48/67/46/68 |
Bakersfield 65/55/65/50/69 | Taft 64/52/65/53/67 | Arvin 67/51/67/49/69 |
Lamont 66/50/66/51/68 | Pixley 66/48/66/45/67 | Tulare 64/44/66/45/67 |
Woodlake 65/44/66/45/67 | Hanford 67/46/67/47/68 | Orosi 65/44/66/45/67 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 45/69 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 45/72 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 46/73 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 48/74 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 49/75 |
Two Week Outlook: November 15 through November 21: This model shows a fairly sturdy ridge of high pressure building along the west coast, driving the storm track into mainly British Columbia and Washington state. The chance of rain is very low during this time frame with above average temperatures.
November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme. If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.
November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California. Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH, diminishing this evening. Winds tonight through Friday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Most of the precipitation has come to an end. There will be enough lift in the atmosphere to keep a chance of showers in the forecast for today, but most locations will remain dry. Rainfall amounts have been pretty much as expected. Northern Fresno and Madera Counties picked up roughly .25 to just a few hundredths in the south valley. Expect dry weather tonight and for the next seven to ten days.
Frost: Obviously, the frost season is getting off to a slow start this year. Currently, I see nothing suggesting a cold pattern on the horizon.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/65% Porterville, 98%/72%. Dew points: Upper Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 10%/. Tomorrow,10%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .73, Parlier .56, Arvin .59, Orange Cove .52, Porterville .48, Delano .53. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 64, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 63, Delano 59. *=data missing.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/65% Porterville, 98%/72%. Dew points: Upper Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 10%/. Tomorrow,10%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .73, Parlier .56, Arvin .59, Orange Cove .52, Porterville .48, Delano .53. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 64, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 63, Delano 59. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 68/45. Record Temperatures: 85/33
Heating Degree Days This Season. 134 -5. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 61.9 which is +4.3. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.27 or +.59. Monthly .00. -.12
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .94 or +56. Month to date .00 -.07
Average Temperature this month: 62.5, -3.1. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0 , Parlier, 0 , Arvin, 0, Belridge, 0 ,Shafter, 0 , Stratford, 2 , Delano, 0 , Porterville, 0
Sunrise/Sunset/HOD: 6:31/4:54/10:25
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 65 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 67 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 67 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 68 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 58 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 63 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 59 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 3.88 404 T 0 0.96 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 2.85 385 T 0 0.74 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.74 200 0.48 55 0.87 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.57 95 0.06 10 0.60 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.27 172 0.10 14 0.74 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.10 186 0.09 15 0.59 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.94 247 0.38 100 0.38 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.65 159 T 0 0.41 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 1.68 202 0.24 29 0.83 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.29 172 0.23 31 0.75 13.32
Next report: November 10