November 10, 2021
There is a great deal of fog and low clouds this morning due to pressures aloft rising behind yesterday’s storm system. Most of the ground reporting stations from Visalia north are reporting a visibility of from less than .25 of a mile to .50 mile. Above the layer of ground fog are areas of low clouds due to upsloping, especially in Kern County. We are now late enough in the year for it to become more difficult for the fog and low clouds to burn off, so temperature forecasting from this point on will be more of a challenge.
In the broad picture, a strong high center is developing roughly 800 miles to the southwest of LA. This puts us under a strong northwesterly flow aloft which will decrease with time as the high builds northward into the Pacific Northwest. A cap, or warm air inversion, will begin to develop above the valley floor, setting the stage for more fog and low clouds each morning, burning off…at least in most areas…into hazy afternoon sunshine. It is possible, though, that the sun may be blocked even in the afternoon in a few locations.
This high will be the dominant feature for the rest of the week. Some models show the high flattening out about Tuesday of next week, allowing precipitation to return to the Pacific Northwest. There does seem to be a trend on models that would allow a trough of low pressure to move through California about the 20th. It’s too early to tell whether this storm will have strong enough dynamics to return precipitation to central California. In the meantime, very quiet weather will prevail.
Forecast: Extensive fog and low clouds nights and mornings through Wednesday of next week. Clearing during the afternoon, although some locations towards the center of the valley may not see any sunshine at all.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/44/67/44/69 | Reedley 65/44/66/43/70 | Dinuba 66/44/68/43/69 |
| Porterville 65/43/67/44/70 | Lindsay 65/43/67/44/70 | Delano 65/47/67/45/70 |
| Bakersfield 65/51/68/50/72 | Taft 65/52/66/54/73 | Arvin 66/49/67/50/72 |
| Lamont 65/50/67/49/72 | Pixley 66/44/68/44/71 | Tulare 64/44/66/44/68 |
| Woodlake 65/43/67/45/69 | Hanford 64/45/67/45/69 | Orosi 64/43/66/43/68 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 43/71 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 45/70 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 44/73 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 48/75 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 43/68 |
Two Week Outlook: November 17 through November 24: This model shows the blocking ridge of high pressure breaking down for about a 50/50 possibility of measurable rain. Temperatures, however, will remain somewhat above average.
November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme. If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.
November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California. Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH, diminishing this evening. Winds tonight through Saturday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: No chance of rain for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: Obviously, the frost season is getting off to a slow start this year. Currently, I see nothing suggesting a cold pattern on the horizon.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/65% Porterville, 98%/72%. Dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 30%/. Tomorrow,60%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .63, Parlier .56, Arvin .57, Orange Cove .48, Porterville .42, Delano .48. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, Parlier 63, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 63, Delano 59. *=data missing. 64
Average Temperatures: 67/44. Record Temperatures: 85/35
Heating Degree Days This Season. 139 -5. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.37 or +.57. Monthly .30. +.12
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +58. Month to date .01 -.12
Average Temperature this month: 60.9, -3.1. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 5 , Parlier, 8 , Arvin, 0, Belridge, 0 ,Shafter, 0 , Stratford, 10 , Delano, 3 , Porterville, 0
Sunrise/Sunset/HOD: 6:32/4:53/10:21
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 66 / 47 / T /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 67 / 46 / 0.03 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 65 / 50 / 0.23 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 67 / 46 / 0.05 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 67 / 44 / 0.04 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 69 / 55 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 66 / 46 / 0.05 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 66 / 48 / 0.05 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 73 / 46 / 0.00 /
MHV : Mojave AP 2785 : 63 / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.37 4.32 415 T 0 1.04 13.45
MODESTO 0.11 3.06 383 T 0 0.80 12.27
MERCED 0.23 1.99 212 0.48 51 0.94 11.80
MADERA 0.07 0.65 98 0.06 9 0.66 10.79
FRESNO 0.26 1.57 196 0.11 14 0.80 10.99
HANFORD 0.07 1.24 197 0.09 14 0.63 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 0.95 232 0.39 95 0.41 6.36
BISHOP 0.13 0.78 181 T 0 0.43 4.84
SALINAS 0.50 2.19 243 0.24 27 0.90 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.01 1.58 203 0.26 33 0.78 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.11 1.40 171 0.24 29 0.82 13.32
Next report: November 11