Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

November 11, 2021/report

Significant warming occurred overnight over the valley floor.  For example, Sandberg at an elevation of 4,100 feet was a balmy 57 degrees at 6:00am, nine degrees warmer than yesterday at the same time.  Blue Canyon was 11 degrees warmer at 8600 feet.  The balloon soundings over Vandenberg and Oakland reflect this warming, as well. Oakland is reporting a freezing level of 13,600 feet while at Vandenberg, the freezing level has shot up to 14,200.

 

The warm descending air under strong upper level high pressure has trapped moisture on the valley floor.  Most locations are reporting either ground fog or a low overcast.  At last report, Porterville, Visalia, and Hanford were all down to ¼ mile visibility.  Most of this moisture will mix out once the sun has had a chance to work on it a while, although  it’s possible some locations in Kern County may see little to no sunshine due to upsloping.

 

In the broader view, upper level high pressure off the southern California coast has expanded into the Pacific Northwest.  This will be our basic pattern for at least the next five days as the high will block any potential storms out over the Pacific.  Models do show the  high beginning to flatten out about Tuesday of next week as storminess  moves back into the Pacific Northwest.  Models are still showing a trough of low pressure moving through California around the 20th.  It’s still unclear whether this feature will have enough energy to produce precipitation.

 

Forecast: Fog and/or low clouds this morning, becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy this afternoon.  Widespread fog later tonight and Friday morning, lifting into a low overcast with clearing in most areas in the afternoon.  Fog and/or low clouds through next Thursday with afternoon sunshine in most areas.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 66/43/70/44/72 Reedley 65/46/70/44/72 Dinuba 65/43/69/44/70
Porterville 67/43/70/47/73 Lindsay 66/42/70/44/72 Delano 67/47/72/46/73
Bakersfield 66/52/71/54/74 Taft 67/55/73/56/74 Arvin 67/49/71/49/75
Lamont 77/49/72/49/74 Pixley 68/44/72/44/73 Tulare 65/43/69/45/71
Woodlake 65/42/70/45/71 Hanford 68/43/72/46/72 Orosi 64/42/69/44/71

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

AM fog/PM sun

47/70

Monday

AM fog/PM sun

46/73

Tuesday

AM fog/PM sun

47/75

Wednesday

AM fog/PM sun

44/70

Thursday

AM fog/PM sun

45/66

 

                                                 

Two Week Outlook:  November 18 through November 24  Models show the storm track moving further north into the Pacific Northwest, meaning central California will only have a minimal chance of precipitation during this period.  Temperatures will largely be governed by fog and low clouds, but will generally be above average.

 

November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme.  If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.

 

November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California.  Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds tonight through Monday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  No chance of rain for the next 7 to 10 days.

Frost:  Obviously, the frost season is getting off to a slow start this year.  Currently, I see nothing suggesting a cold pattern on the horizon.

Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/NA%  Porterville, 100%/70%.  Dew points: Upper Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 60%.  Bakersfield: Today: 30%/. Tomorrow,60%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .58, Parlier .56, Arvin .55, Orange Cove .42, Porterville .41, Delano .46. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 63, Parlier 63, Arvin, *, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 62, Delano 57. *=data missing. 64

Average Temperatures: 67/44.  Record Temperatures: 84/31

Heating Degree Days This Season.  165  -3. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .1.57 or +.74. Monthly  .30. +.03

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, .95 or +52.  Month to date  .01 -.14

Average Temperature this month: 59.7, +2.7. Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 5 , Parlier, 8 ,  Arvin,  0, Belridge,  0  ,Shafter, 0 , Stratford, 10 , Delano, 3 , Porterville, 0

Sunrise/Sunset/HOD:  6:34/4:52/10:20

NA=missing

Yesterday’s Weather:

.BR HNX 1111 Z DH08/TAIRZX/DH12/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ

:

:                             Max   Min    24-Hr  Snow

: Id   Name            Elev   Temp  Temp   Pcpn   Depth

:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  67 /  51 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  65 /  55 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  62 /  49 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  62 /  47 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  66 /  46 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  66 /  50 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  63 /  48 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  67 /  47 /  0.00 /

IYK   : Inyokern AP     2455 :  76 /  47 /  0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:                    24hr     season  %      L.Y.    %     Ave.   Annual total ave

STOCKTON                      0.00    4.32   400       T     0     1.08    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    3.06   369       T     0     0.83    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    1.99   205    0.48    49     0.97    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    0.65    96    0.06     9     0.68    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    1.57   189    0.11    13     0.83    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    1.24   191    0.09    14     0.65     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.95   221    0.39    91     0.43     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.78   177       T     0     0.44     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    2.19   235    0.24    26     0.93    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    1.58   195    0.26    32     0.81    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    1.40   163    0.24    28     0.86    13.32

 

Next report: November 12