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Forecast

November 13, 2021/report

November 13, 2021

Infrared satellite imagery of California is quite telling.  Low clouds and fog literally fill the San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys.  The only exception is the far southern portion of the valley.  However, when we put this satellite picture into motion, it clearly shows the fog heading south just to the east of Bakersfield. The cloud deck itself is fairly shallow with a depth of only 1,100 feet or so, meaning most areas will see hazy sunshine this afternoon.  Visibilities on the valley floor are somewhat of a mess with every location from Visalia to Sacramento reporting a visibility of only about .25….less in some areas.  Above the fog, we find mostly clear skies with balmy temperatures.  Sandberg at 4,100 feet was reporting 62 degrees while at Bear Peak at 8,200 feet the temp came in at 51.

 

Strong upper level high pressure is centered just off the central coast with a ridge extending in to the Pacific Northwest.  The high will completely dominate our pattern through Tuesday.  On Wednesday and Wednesday night, the high will break down, allowing a trough of low pressure to break through. Light showers could fall as far south as a Bay Area/Stockton line, however the main impact on the valley will be somewhat cooler temperatures and possibly a temporary break up of in inversion.  This would allow the fog to at least temporarily disperse.

 

Forecast: Fog and low clouds through Tuesday night.  Clearing in most areas during the afternoon.  Highs out of the fog areas will climb into the low 70s and low to mid 60s where fog is persistent.  Partly cloudy Wednesday and Thursday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.  Mostly clear Friday and Saturday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.

 

Short Term:  Since temperatures at individual locations will be determined on when fog and low clouds burn off, it’s best to just generalize temperatures.  High temperatures in areas were the low clouds remain all day will be in the upper 50s to the mid 60s.  where hazy sunshine prevails during the afternoon, highs will warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  the best chance of hazy sunshine will be in Kern County and possibly southeastern Tulare County. 

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

AM fog/PM sun

46/73

Wednesday

AM fog/Partly cloudy

45/70

Thursday

Patchy fog/partly cloudy

43/68

Friday

AM fog/PM sun

42/67

Saturday

AM fog/PM sun

41/65

 

                                                 

Two Week Outlook:  November 20 through November 26  Models show the storm track moving further north into the Pacific Northwest, meaning central California will only have a minimal chance of precipitation during this period.  Temperatures will largely be governed by fog and low clouds, but will generally be above average.

 

November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme.  If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.

 

November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California.  Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds tonight through Tuesday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  No chance of rain for the next 7 to 10 days.

Frost:  Obviously, the frost season is getting off to a slow start this year.  Currently, I see nothing suggesting a cold pattern on the horizon.

Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/67%  Porterville, 100%/66%.  Dew points: Upper Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 90%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .54, Parlier .40, Arvin .55, Orange Cove .35, Porterville .38, Delano .44. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 63, Parlier 61, Arvin, .47, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 62, Delano 57. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 66/43.  Record Temperatures: 83/28

Heating Degree Days This Season.  181  -8. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .1.57 or +.69. Monthly  .30. -.02

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, .95 or +49.  Month to date  .01 -.17

Average Temperature this month: 59.2, +2.6. Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 5 , Parlier, 8 ,  Arvin,  0, Belridge,  0  ,Shafter, 0 , Stratford, 14 , Delano, 3 , Porterville, 0

Sunrise/Sunset:HOD:  6:36/4:50/10:16

NA=missing

Yesterday’s Weather:

.BR HNX 1111 Z DH08/TAIRZX/DH12/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ

:

:                             Max   Min    24-Hr  Snow

: Id   Name            Elev   Temp  Temp   Pcpn   Depth

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  63 /  47 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  67 /  47 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  69 /  50 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  70 /  49 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  72 /  44 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  71 /  52 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  70 /  46 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  72 /  47 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                    24hr     season  %      L.Y.    %     Ave.   Annual total ave

STOCKTON                      0.00    4.32   372       T     0     1.16    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    3.06   344       T     0     0.89    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    1.99   193    0.48    47     1.03    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    0.65    88    0.06     8     0.74    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    1.57   178    0.11    13     0.88    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    1.24   182    0.09    13     0.68     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.95   207    0.39    85     0.46     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.78   170       T     0     0.46     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    2.19   219    0.24    24     1.00    12.58

PASO ROBLES                      M       M     M       M     M        M    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    1.40   152    0.24    26     0.92    13.32

 

Next report: November 15