November 15, 2021
Higher level clouds are obscuring satellite imagery of the fog on the valley floor. Judging from automated weather stations, and observations from various sources, the fog is very widespread and is very dense. Several observations peg the visibility at 50 yards. Model information on days like today are useless as they don’t take into consideration possible burn off times of the fog. For example, some of the best models are indicating upper 70s for this afternoon, which is ridiculous. Highs will range in the upper 50s and lower 60s where fog and low clouds are persistent t the upper 60s and lower 70s where fog burns off.
Another wild card in all this is increasing higher clouds from a trough of low pressure which is approaching the northern California coast. The main question is whether this system will lift the fog and low clouds out of the region. It does appear there will be a chance of showers as far south as a Bay Area/Stockton line late tonight and Tuesday with just variable cloudiness in the central and south valley.
Models show a ridge of high pressure quickly building in from the west Wednesday through Friday, reestablishing the warm air inversion. a stronger trough of low pressure will move through central California Friday night and Saturday. At this point, it appears precipitation will remain just to our north. Stronger high pressure will begin to build early next week with the possibility of a cut off low forming well off the central coast. This system is expected to just meander off shore for several days, possibly moving in through Baja later next week.
Forecast: Widespread dense fog this morning, lifting into a low overcast this afternoon with partial clearing. Increasing higher clouds later this afternoon and tonight. Variable cloudiness Wednesday with areas of ground fog and/or low clouds. Widespread night and morning fog with some afternoon clearing Wednesday through Friday. Variable cloudiness Friday night through Saturday night with areas of fog and low clouds. Areas of fog and low clouds nights and mornings Sunday and Monday, clearing in most areas in the afternoon.
Short Term: Highs this afternoon where the low clouds burn off, will range in the upper 60s and lower 70s. where the fog and low clouds remain persistent highs will be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Lows tonight will range in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs Tuesday will range in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows Tuesday night will child into the mid to upper 40s, with possibly some low 50s in Kern County. Highs Wednesday will warm in to the mid to upper 60s.
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 45/68 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 43/69 |
Saturday
Areas of fog/mostly cloudy 44/67 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 42/63 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 41/66 |
Two Week Outlook: November 20 through November 26 Models show the storm track moving further north into the Pacific Northwest, meaning central California will only have a minimal chance of precipitation during this period. Temperatures will largely be governed by fog and low clouds, but will generally be above average.
November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme. If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.
November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California. Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight through Thursday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: No chance of rain for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: Obviously, the frost season is getting off to a slow start this year. Currently, I see nothing suggesting a cold pattern on the horizon.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/67% Porterville, 100%/66%. Dew points: Upper Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .54, Parlier .40, Arvin .55, Orange Cove .35, Porterville .38, Delano .44. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 63, Parlier 61, Arvin, .47, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 62, Delano 57. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 66/43. Record Temperatures: 83/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 181 -8. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.57 or +.69. Monthly .30. -.02
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +49. Month to date .01 -.17
Average Temperature this month: 59.2, +2.6. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 5 , Parlier, 8 , Arvin, 0, Belridge, 0 ,Shafter, 0 , Stratford, 14 , Delano, 3 , Porterville, 0
Sunrise/Sunset:HOD: 6:36/4:50/10:16
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
.BR HNX 1111 Z DH08/TAIRZX/DH12/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ
:
: Max Min 24-Hr Snow
: Id Name Elev Temp Temp Pcpn Depth
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 63 / 47 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 67 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 69 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 70 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 72 / 44 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 71 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 70 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 372 T 0 1.16 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.06 344 T 0 0.89 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.99 193 0.48 47 1.03 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.65 88 0.06 8 0.74 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.57 178 0.11 13 0.88 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.24 182 0.09 13 0.68 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.95 207 0.39 85 0.46 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 170 T 0 0.46 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.19 219 0.24 24 1.00 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.40 152 0.24 26 0.92 13.32
Next report: November 16